The Uncertainty Principle

In today’s troubled times there is a feeling that the future is so uncertain that one might as well give up, curl in an armchair and wait for better times to emerge. Dealing with uncertainty has always been difficult and never more so when the external environment itself offers no help. Of course there are differed kinds of uncertainties.

In the immortal words of that famous “philosopher” Donald Rumsfeld “there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

Uncertain situations are usually novel, unknown, surprising, and different from usual. Many societies try to minimize the possibility of such situations by strict laws and rules, bureaucratic manuals, a rigid adherence to precedents, and various safety and security measures, and on the philosophical and religious level by a belief in absolute Truth; ‘there can only be one Truth and we have it’. But despite these uncertainty avoidance measures, it is clear that most of us will face uncertainties at some point or the other in our lives. The real issue is how do we tackle the uncertainties confronting us when they do.

Now there is the certain uncertainty (CU) where the contours of the problem are relatively clear- but what is not clear is how it will impact you. This is the case for example of the uncertainty one feels in the days before the final exams in school or on the first day of ones job. You know what the issue is but you are not certain if you are able to handle it. The solution here is simple – preparation and research. You can lower the level of uncertainty in these cases by spending time on research and preparation so that you are able to handle the limited number of options or courses that will open up. And the more you prepare, the lower is your level of uncertainty and hence tension.

A far more difficult case is that of uncertain uncertainty (UU) i.e. where you do not even know what the future is going to be because there are no precedents or guides to help you. This uncertainty in the future makes it almost impossible to prepare for or research to provide a measure of confidence in your ability to handle it. How does one handle the UU issues is one of those most difficult issues facing say the employee who has just been let off in an environment with vast unemployment or some one diagnosed with an incurable disease.  In these cases while some research would help but the underlying uncertainty renders most people to retreat from the world or take refuge in cynicism and perhaps despair. What does one say to people facing UU? What remedies can one recommend to them?

Perhaps the first, and most obvious one, is to understand that this will pass, that it is not a permanent state of affairs but that times and tide will change. The fact is the life is full of transitions.  And every transition process contains a period where uncertainty reigns. Change is an inevitable part of life. Impermanence is a given.  But in order to manage change effectively it is essential to not fear or resist change and challenges, but instead empower oneself with the necessary skills to navigate through the uncertainty. 

As human beings, we often become attached to our, roles, responsibilities, work group, and historical and current structures within an organization.  The normal reactions to significant change cover a wide gamut of emotions: from shock, numbness, and withdrawal to fear and insecurity. Many times it leads to frustration, resentment, and anger coupled with a feeling of unfairness, betrayal, and distrust. This tends to come out in a lack of interest in activities and life in general or worse to a distrust of everything expressed in quietness or cynicism.

So how does one get over this period?

First thing to understand is that successfully managing the uncertainty that accompanies any transformation will ultimately increase one’s resilience, self - confidence, motivation and productivity. To begin with one needs to simply acknowledge ones current situation, and be aware that normal reactions to the transitional period are to be expected.  Then you need to take charge and plan in advance how you will respond to the changed workplace environment and prioritize steps that will aid in minimizing your anxiety and stress levels.  It is inevitable that when any major change occurs, both positive and negative feelings will often emerge often at the same time.  It’s important to talk and confide in a few people you trust about current changes and pressures associated with the transition. It is helpful to seek   out individuals who have a sense of hope and who can help you strategize about managing your current situation.  Clear communication and information in times of uncertainty can aid in minimizing stress and anxiety levels.  Acknowledging ambiguity and what you don’t know is equally important. 
It is time to also develop adaptable coping skills. Think back to challenging times in your life and draw upon how you coped, managed to get through the transition period successfully, and thrive. Each individual has the capacity to cope and deal with situations effectively. And finally use this interrugm to do something one has always wanted to do but never found time for – learn a new language, hone a craft, read a new book or travel and see the world. A change of scenery can sometimes turn a UU into a CU but that is an advance, is it not?