Vietnam - new impressions

Few countries have grown so rapidly as Vietnam has in the last two decades - the average economic growth rate has been over 8 % per annum. Fewer countries have faced down not one but three dominant powers of the day, in war - China, France and US- and emerged triumphant. Yet in my visit over the past two weeks, I found an undercurrent of anxiety in the mood of the country reflected in its leadership and in the media. It was vague and unformed and very rarely explicitly discussed but to me it was an ever present ghost at the party. The very success of the country seemed to leave many puzzled and sometime confused as if the success had come too easily and the future seemed undefined when there seemed no more mountains left to climb.

I had first come to Vietnam over 20 years, lived here for over 8 years during the nineties and was now returning after an absence of five years. It was a completely different world that I encountered. Streets were filled with the latest model of cars, there were gleaming shopping malls everywhere, restaurants were packed not with expatriates but locals. There were signs of prosperity everywhere with multi storied buildings and five star hotels coming up at every corner of the two cities I visited- Hanoi and HCMC. When I first came here twenty years ago, there were no taxis, no hotels and certainly no cars on the streets. Perhaps all that provided me some perspective and some ability to decipher the vague issues that existed but were left undiscussed.

The dominant ones were- the feeling of rapid development without values. It recalled for me the dilemna that Gandhiji had illuminated over a half a century ago: that there could be no " politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice." And that every nation must enshrine some core values in their national life and character. The passionate nationalism of the past few decades had yet to find a new definition in the new era of economic development.

All recent politics and policies seemed without a clear vision. Where was the country headed? Did they want to be another China, Korea or did they want to emulate the US? What were the choices and which ones did the leadership seek? What were the trade offs that needed to be made and could the country get by without calling for any sacrifice from their citizens? The absence of clarity of vision underlay an anxiety about the future that their present prosperity belied.

While the future vision was blurred, the path to advancement required choices that few in leadership seemed to relish making. Thus the recognition that the system needed much greater efficiency in governance was matched by an equal reluctance to tackle the "culture of entitlement" in the bureaucracy. Administration grew in size even as there was increased recognition that the civil services were the key constraints to change and any growth.

Agressive organizational changes were designed and implemented but unmatched by any effort to bring in new blood. So the organizational blocks became ever more complicated, helped along by international donors and consultants, yet the chairs were still occupied by the old guard, the very ones whose whose lack of expertise and initiative had created the problems in the first place. The young were reluctant to enter public service except for the careerists but the government was reluctant to trust the open market system for its recruitment of the talent it sorely needed for the new challenges that lay ahead.

There was a desire to grow globally and become a global player, yet an extreme reluctance to permit open competititon of any kind in the system, except under very controlled circumstances and except for the low level business retail efforts. There was a growing facade of competitive frameworks but without development of the key ingredients- meaningful competitors functioning under an independent regulatory system.

Despite the almost universal education the country enjoyed and relatively open access to internet and TV, there was still a degree of insularity that seemed to persist. There were few attempts to inculcate public service - domestically or overseas- as the intelligensia still struggled with the fact that they were "developed" but still felt "developing".

There were signs of enthusiastic consumption everywhere- but with the older generation that had lived through the war, there was only cautious hedonism, while the younger generation pursued pleasure and money in a Gekko like greed with the creed that " money was good".

Many had, however, started to recognize that Armani and Dunhill shops in hotel arcades and ever growing new shopping malls- however unoccupied they may be- were really not an accurate measure of the country's growth or development. The issue that bedevilled them was what should be a truer measure of their forward progress. Should it be the US constitutional guarantee of " right to happiness" for all its citizens or should it be the European quest for universal equality? Should they set their sights on the Indian version of democracy and secular governance or the Chinese version of a modern day " big brother" government ? How should the transition from the authoritarian leadership to a greater measure of local democracy take place? Was the national parliament an adequate measure of popular participation in public life?

These were all questions that will need to be answered as Vietnam moves forward-- as it surely will. And their answers will be of immense interest to the world and not the least to me as well. That Vietnam will emerge from its latest travails triumphant, I have no doubt. What I am really curious about is the path they will finally take.

When children become parents

It happens slowly. It creeps up on you gradually and you are not even aware that it is happening. And then one day, out of the blue, you find your daughter on the phone asking agitatedly " Where were you ? I have been calling and calling. I almost called 911. Why are out so late?"

That is the moment you realize that now your children have become your parents. She is reading from a script that we parents wrote some decades ago when your children were out late partying and not informing us where they were!

A group of us elderly parents were bewailing our lot. One wailed, " my son wont let me eat a dessert". Another complained of constant lectures from her children about not sticking to a diet. " Have you taken your pills today? Really, Mom! Must I come there to make sure you follow your doctors orders?"

Yes the transition is complete- the children are now our parents. Time was when we would threaten them when they were particularly recalcitrant " Just you wait. I hope I live long enough to see your children give you the same trouble you are giving me now!"

Little did we realize that there was going to come another phase in between - when even before our children had their children they would find an opportunity to berate us parents for our supposed failings.

"Honestly, Dad" said my daughter one day in good humored exasperation, " I can not leave you alone for even a little while. Every time I turn my back, you create a new problem".

That was at least partly true- unfortunately so I could not argue with her - the last time she had had to call the emergency services.

"Taking care of babies is hard, for sure, but add to the baby a parent who has somehow, so strangely and suddenly, become childlike, and you are quite abruptly in charge of two generations. Big and little people with needs that you must answer." writes Elizabeth Cohen, " Extreme parents get to zip everyone’s zippers, tie everyone’s shoes, make sure everyone has gone to the bathroom, and sometimes change the diapers of our babies and parents as well."

While it is a natural part of life, and happens so often in our society, it still feels strange and wrong somehow when children charge of their parents. It is counter-intuitive.

"But there are silver linings to the extreme parenting job" continues the writer, "One is you get to spend time with your parents at the end of their lives. There is something precious and lovely about that time, because it is so fleeting and finite."

I asked another of these ambitious young women about her plans for the next ten years. She replied blithely " Oh! marriage, children and build my career". Little did she realize that looking after her aging parents would be added, inadvertently to her repertoire. And she would be left juggling these four balls for years to come.

To me it has becoming increasingly evident, that the " sandwich" generation that I wrote of some time ago, is rapidly becoming a "Houdini" generation juggling marriage, children, career and aging parents all at the same time. It is also a constant source of wonder and amazement that this generation is still able to function despite these pressures.

As one of this generation asked me ruefully one evening., " I honestly dont know which is more difficult, looking after my children, my parents or working at my career? How should I handle it?"

I had no advice to give her.

Back to Vietnam

It was exactly 20 years ago that I first landed at the Noibai airport at Hanoi for my first visit to Vietnam. I was leading an international group of experts to try and map the energy sector of the country. We landed at the darkened airport in the evening and drove past a line of fighter planes before stopping at the terminal. The terminal was a simple shed and we soon cleared the formalities, exchanged a hundred dollars for a million dong in local currency and climbed into the only vehicle outside the terminal- a government van. The van drove us past the countryside and into the city of Hanoi to its only hotel- Hoa Binh hotel- which we were told meant Peace. It was an old building with large rooms but few creature comforts except a few forlorn mice. There were telephones but no one seemed to know how to operate them. Next morning, we trooped down for breakfast, only to find very spartan fare- the local soup. From then, one of the team was deputized to wake up early to get a few of the hot bagels from the street vendors. All visits to the government offices were in cyclobs-- we were quite a site every morning as the six of us climbed into a separate cyclob and led this parade from one government office to another.

But what a change twenty years makes. This time we landed at the gleaming international terminal which was far superior to most terminals in the west. We went through the customs and immigration in about ten minutes and were greeted by a line of taxis from at least three different operators. The road from the airport was well lit and broad signs on both sides advertised the latest wares. The Hilton hotel was one of seven five star hotels now operating in Hanoi and you were lucky to find a room such was the crush of tourists and businessmen. In the morning, we could dine on the most succulent of breakfasts. As we walked out of the hotel, we could see the grand Opera House next door which was advertising an opera that evening and a symphony performance sponsored by the Spanish embassy next week.

It is difficult to believe that a country can make such a major transition in just two decades. Vietnam is after all a country of 80 million and to take them into modernity within years is a real tribute to the policy makers and the politicians.

I wonder why at least in a few of our states in India this transition could not be made!

The limits of multi tasking

I had always been skeptical of people who claimed that they could multi task. So it was gratifying to find some research bolstering my instincts.

But the real clincher in my case came from my own experience-- of course, I may be someone constitutionally unable to multitask. I was, as my regular readers, would vouchsafe writing two columns a week in my blog and have been doing it for more than a year. Yet when a few weeks ago, I was urged to complete my book on heart disease " Straight from the heart", I thought it would not be a major issue and that I could continue writing my blogs. Alas, I could not keep these two projects going on at the same time. And when the world bank asked me to write a report on rural electrification in Vietnam, the fat was really in the fire and my writing suffered.

But all is now back to normal. The book is published and is available on the internet both as a regular paper edition and also as a Kindle book. The report on Vietnam will be ready by the end of the month after I visit Vietnam starting next week. So come June, the writing should resume and my limit of multitasking lapse.

Ten emerging technologies that will shape the future

Each year, Technology Review, a magazine published by my alma mater, MIT, selects what it believes are the most important emerging technologies that have the potential to change the future. The winners are chosen based on the editors coverage of key fields. The question that the editors asks is simple: is the technology likely to change the world?

This years picks are a mix-- four are in the area of information technology, three in the medical breakthroughs, two in energy, one in environment. Some of these changes are on the largest scale possible: better biofuels, more efficient solar cells and light trapping photovoltaics. Others like green concrete will help solve the global warming in the years ahead. Other changes will be more local and involve how we use technology: D-screens on mobile devices, new applications for cloud computing, social TV and improved real time search. And new ways to implant medical electronics, engineered stem cells and dual action antibodies will affect us on the most intimate level of all, with the promise of making our lives healthier.

The choices this year are the following:

Real time search

Social TV

Cloud programming

Mobile 3 D

Solar fuel

Light trapping photovoltaics

Green concrete

Implantable electronics

Engineered stem cells

Dual action antibodies