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Monday, June 30, 2014

Paul - the modern day seer

It is well known that from ancient times men have sought divine intervention to predict their future. Greeks went to the oracles of Delphi, Romans to their seers, Indians go to their astrologers. But now faced with a tense World Cup soccer, Germans have found a new seer - Paul.

Paul is an octopus who supposedly accurately predicted the results of the past association football matches. He also made several accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup which brought him worldwide attention as an animal oracle. 


During divinations, Paul's keepers would present him with two boxes containing food. Each box was identical except for the fact that they were decorated with the different team flags of the competitors of an upcoming football match. Whichever box Paul ate from first would be considered his prediction for which team would win the match.

His keepers at the Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, mainly tasked him with predicting the outcomes of international matches in which the German national football team was playing. Paul correctly chose the winning team in several of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup—including Germany's third place play-off win over Uruguay on 10 July. Following these predictions, his success rate rose to 85 percent, with an overall record of 11 out of 13 correct predictions.Aside from his predictions involving Germany, Paul also foretold Spain's win against the Netherlands in the 2010 World Cup Final by eating a mussel from the box with the Spanish flag on it.

Experts have proposed several scientific theories to explain Paul's seemingly prescient behaviour, ranging from pure luck to the possibility that he was attracted to the appearance or smell of one box over another. But nobody really knows the secret of his success.

Paul was hatched in January 2008 from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres at Oberhausen in Germany. His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus. According to Sea Life's entertainment director, Daniel Fey, Paul demonstrated intelligence early in life: ″There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were.″

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly colour blind; neither behavioural studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a colour's hue. Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, was Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany. Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. According to Paul's keepers, there were holes in the jars to help him choose.

His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an Octopus recipe on Facebook. " There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive" said Oliver Walenciak (Paul's keeper)

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten. In response, Spanish Prime Minister José Zapatero offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.

The President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, criticised Paul, accusing him of being a symbol of Western decadence and decay.

Doubts were expressed, notably in the German press, as to whether "Paul" was actually the same octopus in 2010 as in 2008. Here are some facts about the oracle Paul

1. He's originally from Weymouth. Although he now resides at the Aquarium Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, Paul was actually born in Weymouth and moved from the town's Sea Life Park in 2006.

2. He's a wanted man. Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou was so angry after Paul correctly predicted his team would lose its quarter-final clash with Germany, that he suggested a way to cook the octopus.
He posted on Facebook: "We will chase him and put him on some paper. We will then beat him (but correctly!) in order to keep the meat tender and then put it in boiling water."

3. He's big news. Paul's predictions have gained so much popularity that German news channel NTV has started to broadcast his predictions live, with two reporters situated next to his tank so they can bring their viewers all the latest goings on.

4. He's the biggest celebrity in Oberhausen. Having wowed the world's media with his predictions, Paul has put the mundane Germany city of Oberhausen on the map.

5. He's got a good track record. Paul began to predict Germany's results during the Euro 2008 tournament, correctly choosing the winner in four of Germany's six matches. He predicted Germany to win every match but was wrong when they lost to Croatia and in the final to Spain. So far at the World Cup 2010, Paul has correctly predicted the winner of each of Germany's five matches.

6. He could have made you a packet. Having correctly tipped the winner of Germany's five World Cup matches, backing Paul's tips could have netted you a few squid. A £1 accumulator bet on all five results would have won you £131, which could comfortably buy you a few bags of mussels.

7. He's an intelligent creature. Octopuses are highly intelligent animals and have been proven to have a strong short and long-term memory. Fiona Smith, head of animal care at Weymouth Sea Life Park said: “Common octopuses like Paul are very intelligent. We equate their intelligence with that of a dog and they love problem solving and figuring things out."

8. He's a Twitter and Facebook sensation. Paul has become an online phenomenon over recent weeks and is now one of the most talked about topics on the web.

9. He doesn't cheat. Paul predicts results by opening one of the two flag-covered plastic food containers in his tank.

10. And finally he's not scared of death threats. According to his keeper, Oliver Walenciak, Paul is unfazed by a series of death threats sent by Argentinian supporters who blame the octopus for their World Cup exit. He said: "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."
 
Paul was last checked by staff on 25 October 2010, and was in good health, but the following morning he was found dead. He was aged two-and-a-half, a normal lifespan for the species. On 17 June 2014, during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, Paul was featured in a Google "doodle". He was represented as in heaven, perched on a billowy bed of clouds and adorned with a halo; when animated, he appeared to vacillate in his predictions for the day's matches.



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