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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The AAP party in Indias future

An interesting piece on India's democracy and the AAP party

" Modern India now has over two thousand ethnic groups. Modern Indian languages have evolved from all the world’s four language families. Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman. India has 1652 individual mother tongues. The 2001 Census tells us that 30 languages are spoken by over a million each, and 122 by over 10,000 each. India has almost 1.2 billion people, and the Union of India consists of 31 States and Union Territories, with some more being currently midwifed. The biggest of these is Uttar Pradesh with a population of 199.6 million or 16.49% of India’s. It is as big as Brazil. The smallest political unit is Lakshadweep which has just 64,000 (0.01%). Quite clearly the omnibus term India, incidentally derived from the name of a river that hardly flows through it, masks a diversity of nations.

In late 2012 India became the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms and has grown at an average rate of over 7% since 2000. Between 2008-11 it grew at more than 9%. In consonance with global trends India’s growth also has tapered off these past two years. Clearly it’s a country of great heterogeneity and complexity. Its diversity makes it unsuitable for any other form of government but DEMOCRACY.

There is a crisis in India’s democracy and the Aam Aadmi Party is its consequence. Most conventional social scientists did not anticipate the AAP phenomena, as most of them did not see the challenges posed to Democracy, as it evolved, particularly in India.According to Aristotle, the underlying principle of Democracy is Freedom, since only in a Democracy can Freedom be shared.

There are two aspects to Freedom Being Ruled and Ruling. And since everyone is equal, numbers matter. We in India have Equality in the sense implied in a Democracy. We have periodic free and fair elections – at least reasonably free and fair, an independent Media, an independent Judiciary and all of us enjoy all the freedoms we believe to be essential to be a Free People.

But why then are we unhappy with the system of government we have?

To begin to understand this we must first understand what kind of a democracy we have evolved into.
Kejriwal is even more revealing when it comes to how he will finance the lowering of costs he is announcing. He has a budget of Rs. 40,000 crores and he has announced reductions that will amount to Rs.242 crores. He then comments on the annual lease of the Delhi Golf Course for Rs.15 lakhs a year when the land value is many thousands of crores. He cryptically comments: “When you subsidize the rich in this country, no one minds that. But when you say we will reduce electricity costs, give water free they say why subsidy?



We were intended to be a hybrid democracy combining direct democracy at the local levels and representative democracy at the regional and national levels. To facilitate the installation of a direct democracy at the lowest levels we needed to dismantle the traditional institutions of local government. While in most parts of the country institutions such as the Khaps, Jaati Sabhas and Gaon Sabhas continue to stubbornly exist, their powers and influence has been considerably whittled down by state systems in anticipation of a new system of Government called the Panchayati Raj, a system based on elections by equals and not based on tradition and birth. The PR system never did take root. As a matter of fact local government even in the cities never took root. The distribution of salaries tells this tale vividly.

Out of a total national expenditure of almost Rs.300, 000 crores each year on salaries and pensions, the Central government distributes almost 42%, the State governments almost 49% and all the local governments only 11%.

Now what happened?

Though the Founders of this Republic never used the term “political party” even once in the Constitution, from day one we were intended to be and are a party based democracy. When people elect representatives they are in fact choosing parties.

How party’s function then becomes critical to our democracy. If parties did not function or are not required to function in a prescribed Constitutional and Democratic manner, the leadership inevitably migrates into the hands of an elite, as we have seen in almost all our political parties now. These political parties have now factions that come together on the basis of a shared region, religion or caste. One of these impulses being the dominating motive for coming together. Take each of our many parties. The only party that claims a Pan Indian appeal has long ceased to be anything but an old feudal order presided over by an aristocracy. None of these parties has a formal membership, a formal requirement for membership, forums for participation and articulating aspirations of their communities, facilities to choose leaders by any formal process other than general and often simulated acclaim.

We have seen the transition of democratic styles in many of the worlds established democracies. The US saw power passing from a self-nominating convention nomination process to a primary based system that binds the convention to the choice of individual party members. This kind of a transition did not happen in India. On the other hand we migrated from a system where parties consisted of equals sharing a common purpose and sometimes goals to one where power passed into the hands of a self-perpetuating political aristocracy.

This system is in fact akin to the democracy of the Kouroukan Fouga of the great Mali Empire where clans (lineages) were represented in a great assembly called the Gbara. We had a similar system in the form of the Loya Jirga in Afghanistan. Even the Lichavi democracy in the post Magadhan period was akin to this.

Clan democracies are implicit with concentration of power with a very few and the manifestation of dictatorial tendencies. The bottom up system thus transforms itself into a top down system. Power then flows from a position of power. There is another consequence to this. When we have a Clan democracy issues pale and the capture of power becomes the sole driving force. Since issues have to be dealt with we quickly get an ideological consensus, as we see in India now. The Clans are quite satisfied with a system that gives them a share of the power and the pelf that goes with it.

This has happened in India and unfortunately the social scientists have not seen in it a failure of democracy. That’s why what Che Guevara said in 1961 in Uruguay said: “Democracy cannot consist solely of elections that are nearly always fictitious and managed by rich landlords and professional politicians.”

It is not surprising that when the notion of Democracy, as it has manifested itself is questioned, the first appellation hurled at the questioner is that he or she has become a Maoist or a Guevarist. But this is not so. Those who challenge the system as it has evolved are actually true democrats who want the voice of the people heard. Government has now become even more distant from the people.

Thus is where the relevance of the Aam Aadmi Party becomes significant. It questions this manifestation of Democracy in India. Most of us, including me, have so far dismissed it as a “One Trick Pony”. But is it so?

A closer reading of what Kejriwal has been saying reflects a deeper understanding of this malaise. He talks of restoring Direct Democracy first. Mani Shankar Aiyar has been trying to make the Congress swallow the bitter pill of Panchayati Raj for almost three decades now. Finally some sympathetic responses are heard from the Congress aristocracy. Rahul Gandhi has been talking a bit about how he intends to democratize the party. About how he intends to change the party from within. That would entail putting his own unchallenged position and hereditary elevation into question. Clearly the democratization of the Congress party can only begin when it becomes weak and hence changes to respond to the aspirations of the people. That is why the AAP experience enthuses him. What Mani Shankar Aiyar could not do, Kejriwal is doing.

He has spoken about the system in some of the Swiss Cantons that practice Direct Democracy, where people vote on all issues that concern their everyday lives. The AAP has pioneered some new methods for this. The use of SMSes for instance on whether to form a government or not? We have for the first time seen somewhat vibrant inner party discussions in the recent meeting of its National Executive. Some of this appears raucous to us. We want an orderly democracy. Like the democracy the bigger parties have given us. So when we see debate and push and shove we see it as disorderly. This is indeed democracy at work.
This is indeed a challenge or Social Scientists like these two esteemed academic titans to explain. I am a common garden variety of economist. I take heart in his most recent and probably first revelation of his mind processes on economic issues.

Speaking to Reuters he said: “I think at a very broad level the government has no business to be in business. The government should leave business to the private sector. We have to encourage the private sector. India is a country of entrepreneurs. In India almost everyone is a born entrepreneur. A Rickshwalla is an entrepreneur. A farmer who has such a high risk taking ability is an entrepreneur. A big trader is an entrepreneur. A big showroom person is an entrepreneur. An industrialist is an entrepreneur. This entire business and industry is shackled with in rules and regulations. We need to free them from all these rules and regulations. If we provide them with a good environment, a free environment, a honest environment to do business, I think India will move ahead leaps and bounds.”

He then goes on to say: “Government sector is bad does not mean you privatize it, and it will become good. Because if its privatized, and it’s a monopolistic sector, you will set up a regulator and that regulator is also a part of the Government. He turns corrupt. And then the regulator plays into the hands of the monopolistic entity. So what is important here is not whether the entity is with the government or in the private sector, but whether there is good governance. If you have good governance you will have good services, if you have bad governance you will get bad services. So wherever it is possible to have competition, all such sectors should be thrown open to the private sector.

Now a free and honest environment for business is not what our politicians want, not what our bureaucrats want and not even what our industrialists want. If this changes, the old and corrupt way has to go. The creative spirits of the Indian people will be freed.

So what do we make out of this party? Kejriwal says: “The Aam Admi Party is one party that is classless, which is not gender biased. There are middle-class people, lower class people, there are laborers, there are rich people, and there are poor people. All kinds of people are part of the Aam Admi Party. Talking to Rajdeep Sardesai he described his party as “Shivji ki Baraat, jis mein tarah tarah ke log hain!” Indeed it seems so. And that too seems to have our Social Scientists confused. We have for far too long been disciplined to think in a certain way."


Mohan Guruswamy is Chairman and founder of Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi, India. He has over three decades of experience in government, industry and academia

Sunday, March 23, 2014

The grass is always greener on the other side....



“Envy is the religion of the mediocre. It comforts them, it soothes their worries, and finally it rots their souls, allowing them to justify their meanness and their greed until they believe these to be virtues. Such people are convinced that the doors of heaven will be opened only to poor wretches like themselves who go through life without leaving any trace but their threadbare attempts to belittle others and to exclude - and destroy if possible - those who, by the simple fact of their existence, show up their own poorness of spirit, mind, and guts. Blessed be the one at whom the fools bark, because his soul will never belong to them.” 

"Envy" and "jealousy" are often used interchangeably in common usage, but strictly speaking, the words stand for two distinct emotions. Jealousy is the result or fear of losing someone or something that one is attached to or possesses to another person (the transfer of a lover's affections in the typical form), while envy is the resentment caused by another person having something that one does not have, but desires for oneself.

“Of the seven deadly sins, only envy is no fun at all" says Epstein. Irish singer Bono once described a difference between America and his native land. “In the United States,” he explained, “you look at the guy that lives in the mansion on the hill, and you think, you know, one day, if I work really hard, I could live in that mansion. In Ireland, people look up at the guy in the mansion on the hill and go, one day, I’m going to get that bastard.” 

Alexis de Tocqueville phrased it a little differently, but his classic 19th-century text contains the same observation. Visiting from France, he marveled at Americans’ ability to keep envy at bay, and to see others’ successes as portents of good times for all. For decades, survey data has supported the Bono-Tocqueville Hypothesis. The 2006 World Values Survey, for example, found that Americans are only a third as likely as British or French people to feel strongly that “hard work doesn’t generally bring success; it’s more a matter of luck and connections.” This faith that success flows from effort has built America’s reputation as a remarkably unenvious society.

Psychologists have found that envy pushes down life satisfaction and depresses well-being. And worse, envy is positively correlated with depression and neuroticism, and the hostility it breeds may actually make us sickRecent work suggests that envy can help explain our complicated relationship with social media: it often leads to destructive “social comparison,” which decreases happiness. There seems to be a strong link between economic envy and unhappiness. In 2008, Gallup asked a large sample of Americans whether they were “angry that others have more than they deserve.” People who strongly disagreed with that statement — who were not envious, in other words — were almost five times more likely to say they were “very happy” about their lives than people who strongly agreed. Even after controlled for income, education, age, family status, religion and politics, this pattern persisted.

The root cause of increasing envy is a belief that opportunity is in decline. According to a 2007 poll on inequality and civic engagement by the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, just 30 percent of people who believe that everyone has the opportunity to succeed describe income inequality as “a serious problem.” But among people who feel that “only some” Americans have a shot at success, fully 70 percent say inequality is a major concern. People who believe that hard work brings success do not begrudge others their prosperity. But if the game looks rigged, envy and a desire for redistribution will follow.

According to Pew, the percentage of Americans who feel that “most people who want to get ahead” can do so through hard work has dropped by 14 points since about 2000. As recently as 2007, Gallup found that 70 percent were satisfied with their opportunities to get ahead by working hard; only 29 percent were dissatisfied. Today, that gap has shrunk to 54 percent satisfied, and 45 percent dissatisfied. In just a few years, we have gone from seeing the economy as a real meritocracy to viewing it as something closer to a coin flip.

How can one break the back of envy and rebuild the optimism that made America the marvel of the world?

First and foremost, we must increase mobility for more Americans with a radical opportunity agenda. That means education reform that empowers parents through choice, and rewards teachers for innovation. It means regulatory and tax reform tailored to spark hiring and entrepreneurship at all levels, especially the bottom of the income scale. It means recalibrating the safety net to ensure that work always pays while never disdaining the so-called dead-end jobs that represent a crucial first step for many marginalized people.

Second, we must recognize that fomenting bitterness over income differences may be powerful politics, but it injures our nation. We need aspirational leaders willing to do the hard work of uniting Americans around an optimistic vision in which anyone can earn his or her success. This will never happen when we vilify the rich or give up on the poor.

Only a shared, joyful mission of freedom, opportunity and enterprise for all will cure us of envy and remind us who we truly are.





What Pakistan knew about Osama Bin Laden

Here is an interesting piece by Carlotta Gall, the North Africa correspondent for The New York Times. 

"Shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, I went to live and report for The New York Times in Afghanistan. I would spend most of the next 12 years there, following the overthrow of the Taliban, feeling the excitement of the freedom and prosperity that was promised in its wake and then watching the gradual dissolution of that hope. A new Constitution and two rounds of elections did not improve the lives of ordinary Afghans; the Taliban regrouped and found increasing numbers of supporters for their guerrilla actions; by 2006, as they mounted an ambitious offensive to retake southern Afghanistan and unleashed more than a hundred suicide bombers, it was clear that a deadly and determined opponent was growing in strength, not losing it. As I toured the bomb sites and battlegrounds of the Taliban resurgence, Afghans kept telling me the same thing: The organizers of the insurgency were in Pakistan, specifically in the western district of Quetta. Police investigators were finding that many of the bombers, too, were coming from Pakistan.

In December 2006, I flew to Quetta, where I met with several Pakistani reporters and a photographer. Together we found families who were grappling with the realization that their sons had blown themselves up in Afghanistan. Some were not even sure whether to believe the news, relayed in anonymous phone calls or secondhand through someone in the community. All of them were scared to say how their sons died and who recruited them, fearing trouble from members of the ISI, Pakistan’s main intelligence service.

After our first day of reporting in Quetta, we noticed that an intelligence agent on a motorbike was following us, and everyone we interviewed was visited afterward by ISI agents. We visited a neighborhood called Pashtunabad, “town of the Pashtuns,” a close-knit community of narrow alleys inhabited largely by Afghan refugees who over the years spread up the hillside, building one-story houses from mud and straw. The people are working class: laborers, bus drivers and shopkeepers. The neighborhood is also home to several members of the Taliban, who live in larger houses behind high walls, often next to the mosques and madrasas they run.

The small, untidy entrance on the street to one of those madrasas, the Jamiya Islamiya, conceals the size of the establishment. Inside, a brick-and-concrete building three stories high surrounds a courtyard, and classrooms can accommodate 280 students. At least three of the suicide bombers we were tracing had been students here, and there were reports of more. Senior figures from Pakistani religious parties and provincial-government officials were frequent visitors, and Taliban members would often visit under the cover of darkness in fleets of S.U.V.s.

We requested an interview and were told that a female journalist would not be permitted inside, so I passed some questions to the Pakistani reporter with me, and he and the photographer went in. The deputy head of the madrasa denied that there was any militant training there or any forced recruitment for jihad. “We are educating the students in the Quran, and in the Quran it is written that it is every Muslim’s obligation to wage jihad,” he said. “All we are telling them is what is in the Quran. Then it is up to them to go to jihad.” He ended the conversation. Classes were breaking up, and I could hear a clamor rising as students burst out of their classrooms. Boys poured out of the gates onto the street. They looked spindly, in flapping clothes and prayer caps, as they darted off on their bikes and on foot, chasing one another down the street.

The reporter and the photographer joined me outside. They told me that words of praise were painted across the wall of the inner courtyard for the madrasa’s political patron, a Pakistani religious-party leader, and the Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar. This madrasa, like so many in Pakistan, was a source of the Taliban resurgence that President Hamid Karzai and other Afghan leaders had long been warning about. In this nondescript madrasa in a poor neighborhood of Quetta, one of hundreds throughout the border region, the Taliban and Pakistan’s religious parties were working together to raise an army of militants.

“The madrasas are a cover, a camouflage,” a Pashtun legislator from the area told me. Behind the curtain, hidden in the shadows, lurked the ISI. The Pakistani government, under President Pervez Musharraf and his intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, was maintaining and protecting the Taliban, both to control the many groups of militants now lodged in the country and to use them as a proxy force to gain leverage over and eventually dominate Afghanistan. The dynamic has played out in ways that can be hard to grasp from the outside, but the strategy that has evolved in Pakistan has been to make a show of cooperation with the American fight against terrorism while covertly abetting and even coordinating Taliban, Kashmiri and foreign Qaeda-linked militants. The linchpin in this two-pronged and at times apparently oppositional strategy is the ISI. It’s through that agency that Pakistan’s true relationship to militant extremism can be discerned — a fact that the United States was slow to appreciate, and later refused to face directly, for fear of setting off a greater confrontation with a powerful Muslim nation.

On our fifth and last day in Quetta, four plainclothes agents detained my photographer colleague at his hotel. They seized his computer and photo equipment and brought him to the parking lot of the hotel where I was staying. There they made him call and ask me to come down to talk to them. “I’m in trouble here,” he told me. It was after dark. I did not want to go down to the parking lot, but I told my colleague I would get help. I alerted my editor in New York and then tried to call Pakistani officials.

Before I could reach them, the agents broke through the door of my hotel room. The lintel splintered, and they burst in in a rush, snatching my laptop from my hands. There was an English-speaking officer wearing a smart new khaki-colored fleece. The other three, one of whom had the photographer in tow, were the muscle. They went through my clothes and seized my notebooks and a cellphone. When one of the men grabbed my handbag, I protested. He punched me twice, hard, in the face and temple, and I fell back onto the coffee table, grabbing at the officer’s fleece to break my fall and smashing some cups when I landed. For a moment it was funny. I remember thinking it was just like a hotel-room bust-up in the movies. Then I flew into a rage, berating them for barging into a woman’s bedroom and using physical violence. The officer told me that I was not permitted to visit the neighborhood of Pashtunabad and that it was forbidden to interview members of the Taliban. As they were leaving, I said the photographer had to stay with me. “He is Pakistani,” the officer said. “We can do with him whatever we want.” I knew they were capable of torture and murder, especially in Quetta, where the security services were a law unto themselves. The story they didn’t want out in the open was the government’s covert support for the militant groups that were propagating terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond.

Six months later, Pakistan blew up. In the spring of 2007 in Islamabad, female students from a madrasa attached to the Red Mosque were staging a sit-in to protest the demolition of several illegal mosques in the city. The Red Mosque stood at the center of Pakistan’s support for jihad in Afghanistan and throughout the Muslim world. It was founded by a famed jihadi preacher, Maulana Muhammad Abdullah, who was assassinated in 1998, not long after he visited Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda blamed the killing on the Pakistani government at the time.

Abdullah’s sons inherited the mosque and continued its extremist teachings. The eldest, Maulana Abdul Aziz, delivered fiery Friday sermons excoriating Musharraf for his public stance on the fight against terrorism and his dealings with the American government. Despite an earlier reputation as a nonreligious bureaucrat, the younger brother, Abdul Rashid Ghazi, spoke of undergoing a conversion after his father’s death and a meeting with Bin Laden, and by 2007 he would not leave the Red Mosque compound for fear of arrest. He warned that ranks of suicide bombers would retaliate if the government moved against the student protesters. With such leaders behind them, the students began staging vigilante actions in the streets. They were radical and obsessive, vowing to die rather than give up their protest. The government’s inaction only encouraged them. Several months after the protest began, a group of students made a midnight raid on a massage parlor and abducted several Chinese women.

Remonstrations from China, Pakistan’s most important regional ally, pushed Musharraf to take action. Pakistani Army rangers occupied a school across the street, and police officers and soldiers moved in to surround the mosque on July 3. Armed fighters appeared from the mosque, carrying rockets and assault rifles and taking up sandbagged positions on the mosque walls. Loudspeakers told the students that this was the time for bravery. A female student took over the microphone. “Allah, where is your help?” she asked in a quavering voice. “Destroy the enemies. Tear their hearts apart. Throw fireballs on them.”

Islamabad is a green, tranquil home for civil servants and diplomats, but for several days it resounded with gunfire and explosions. Crowds of worried parents arrived from all over the country to try to retrieve their children. The Red Mosque leaders tried to make the students stay. “They said if the women and others die, the people will take their side,” one father told me, and I realized then how premeditated this all was, how the girls were pawns in their plan to spark a revolution.

A week after the siege began, there was a ferocious battle. Elite Pakistani commandos rappelled from helicopters into the mosque and were raked with machine-gun fire. Perched in the mosque’s minarets and throughout its 75 rooms, the militants fought for 10 hours. They hurled grenades from bunkers and basements, and suicide bombers threw themselves at their attackers. The commandos found female students hiding in a bricked-up space beneath the stairs and led 50 women and girls to safety. Ghazi retreated to a basement in the compound. He died there as the last surviving fighters battled around him.
More than 100 people were killed in the siege, including 10 commandos. The ISI — despite having a long relationship with the mosque and its leaders, as well as two informers inside providing intelligence — played a strangely ineffective role. In a cabinet meeting after the siege, ministers questioned a senior ISI official about the intelligence service’s failure to prevent the militant action. “Who I meet in the evening and what I discuss is on your desk the next morning,” one minister told the official. “How come you did not know what was happening a hundred meters from the ISI headquarters?” The official sat in silence as ministers thumped their desks in a gesture of agreement. “One hundred percent they knew what was happening,” a former cabinet minister who attended the meeting told me. The ISI allowed the militants to do what they wanted out of sympathy, he said. “The state is not as incompetent as people believe.”

The Pakistani military faced an immediate and vicious backlash. In the months that followed, there were strikes against convoys of soldiers in the northwest and a wave of suicide bombings against government, military and civilian targets throughout the country, including the army’s headquarters and the main ISI compound in Rawalpindi. After years of nurturing jihadists to fight its proxy wars, Pakistan was now experiencing the repercussions. “We could not control them,” a former senior intelligence official told a colleague and me six months after the Red Mosque siege.
Yet even as the militants were turning against their masters, Pakistan’s generals still sought to use them for their own purpose, most notoriously targeting Pakistan’s first female prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, who was preparing to fly home from nearly a decade in exile in the fall of 2007. Bhutto had forged a deal with Musharraf that would allow him to resign as army chief but run for another term as president, while clearing the way for her to serve as prime minister. Elections were scheduled for early 2008.

Bhutto had spoken out more than any other Pakistani politician about the dangers of militant extremism. She blamed foreign militants for annexing part of Pakistan’s territory and called for military operations into Waziristan. She declared suicide bombing un-Islamic and seemed to be challenging those who might target her. “I do not believe that any true Muslim will make an attack on me because Islam forbids attacks on women, and Muslims know that if they attack a woman, they will burn in hell,” she said on the eve of her return. She also promised greater cooperation with Afghanistan and the United States in combating terrorism and even suggested in an interview that she would give Western officials access to the man behind Pakistan’s program of nuclear proliferation, A. Q. Khan. President Karzai of Afghanistan warned Bhutto that his intelligence service had learned of threats against her life. Informers had told the Afghans of a meeting of army commanders — Musharraf and his 10 most-powerful generals — in which they discussed a militant plot to have Bhutto killed.

On Oct. 18, 2007, Bhutto flew into Karachi. I was one of a crowd of journalists traveling with her. She wore religious amulets and offered prayers as she stepped onto Pakistani soil. Hours later, as she rode in an open-top bus through streets of chanting supporters, two huge bombs exploded, tearing police vans, bodyguards and party followers into shreds. Bhutto survived the blast, but some 150 people died, and 400 were injured. Bhutto claimed that Musharraf had threatened her directly, and Karzai again urged her to take more precautions, asking his intelligence service to arrange an armored vehicle for her equipped with jammers to block the signals of cellphones, which are often used to detonate bombs. In the meantime, Bhutto pressed on with her campaign, insisting on greeting crowds of supporters from the open top of her vehicle.

In late December, a group of militants, including two teenage boys trained and primed to commit suicide bombings, arrived at the Haqqania madrasa in the northwestern town of Akora Khattak. The madrasa is a notorious establishment, housing 3,000 students in large, whitewashed residence blocks. Ninety-five percent of the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan have passed through its classrooms, a spokesman for the madrasa proudly told me. Its most famous graduate is Jalaluddin Haqqani, a veteran Afghan mujahedeen commander whose network has become the main instrument for ISI-directed attacks in Kabul and eastern Afghanistan.

The two young visitors who stopped for a night at the madrasa were escorted the next day to Rawalpindi, where Bhutto would be speaking at a rally on Dec. 27. As her motorcade left the rally, it slowed so she could greet supporters in the street. One of the two teenagers fired a pistol at her and then detonated his vest of explosives. Bhutto was standing in the roof opening of an armored S.U.V. She ducked into the vehicle at the sound of the gunfire, but the explosion threw the S.U.V. forward, slamming the edge of the roof hatch into the back of her head with lethal force. Bhutto slumped down into the vehicle, mortally wounded, and fell into the lap of her confidante and constant chaperone, Naheed Khan.
As Bhutto had long warned, a conglomeration of opponents wanted her dead and were all linked in some way. They were the same forces behind the insurgency in Afghanistan: Taliban and Pakistani militant groups and Al Qaeda, as well as the Pakistani military establishment, which included the top generals, Musharraf and Kayani. A United Nations Commission of Inquiry into the circumstances of Bhutto’s death found that each group had a motive and merited investigation.

Pakistani prosecutors later indicted Musharraf on charges of being part of a wider conspiracy to remove Bhutto from the political scene. There was “overwhelming circumstantial evidence” that he did not provide her with adequate security because he wanted to ensure her death in an inevitable assassination attempt, the chief state prosecutor in her murder trial, Chaudhry Zulfiqar Ali, told me. (Musharraf denied the accusations.) A hard-working, hard-charging man, Ali succeeded in having Musharraf arrested and was pushing to speed up the trial when he was shot to death on his way to work in May 2013. Ali had no doubts that the mastermind of the plot to kill Bhutto was Al Qaeda. “It was because she was pro-American, because she was a strong leader and a nationalist,” he told me. A Pakistani security official who interviewed some of the suspects in the Bhutto case and other militants detained in Pakistan’s prisons came to the same conclusion. The decision to assassinate Bhutto was made at a meeting of the top council of Al Qaeda, the official said.

It took more than three years before the depth of Pakistan’s relationship with Al Qaeda was thrust into the open and the world learned where Bin Laden had been hiding, just a few hundred yards from Pakistan’s top military academy. In May 2011, I drove with a Pakistani colleague down a road in Abbottabad until we were stopped by the Pakistani military. We left our car and walked down a side street, past several walled houses and then along a dirt path until there it was: Osama bin Laden’s house, a three-story concrete building, mostly concealed behind concrete walls as high as 18 feet, topped with rusting strands of barbed wire. This was where Bin Laden hid for nearly six years, and where, 30 hours earlier, Navy SEAL commandos shot him dead in a top-floor bedroom. After a decade of reporting in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tracking Bin Laden, I was fascinated to see where and how he hid. He had dispensed with the large entourage that surrounded him in Afghanistan. For nearly eight years, he relied on just two trusted Pakistanis, whom American investigators described as a courier and his brother.
People knew that the house was strange, and one local rumor had it that it was a place where wounded Taliban from Waziristan recuperated. I was told this by Musharraf’s former civilian intelligence chief, who had himself been accused of having a hand in hiding Bin Laden in Abbottabad. He denied any involvement, but he did not absolve local intelligence agents, who would have checked the house. All over the country, Pakistan’s various intelligence agencies — the ISI, the Intelligence Bureau and Military Intelligence — keep safe houses for undercover operations. They use residential houses, often in quiet, secure neighborhoods, where they lodge people for interrogation or simply enforced seclusion. Detainees have been questioned by American interrogators in such places and sometimes held for months. Leaders of banned militant groups are often placed in protective custody in this way. Others, including Taliban leaders who took refuge in Pakistan after their fall in Afghanistan in 2001, lived under a looser arrangement, with their own guards but also known to their Pakistani handlers, former Pakistani officials told me. Because of Pakistan’s long practice of covertly supporting militant groups, police officers — who have been warned off or even demoted for getting in the way of ISI operations — have learned to leave such The split over how to handle militants is not just between the ISI and the local police; the intelligence service itself is compartmentalized. In 2007, a former senior intelligence official who worked on tracking members of Al Qaeda after Sept. 11 told me that while one part of the ISI was engaged in hunting down militants, another part continued to work with them.

Soon after the Navy SEAL raid on Bin Laden’s house, a Pakistani official told me that the United States had direct evidence that the ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, knew of Bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad. The information came from a senior United States official, and I guessed that the Americans had intercepted a phone call of Pasha’s or one about him in the days after the raid. “He knew of Osama’s whereabouts, yes,” the Pakistani official told me. The official was surprised to learn this and said the Americans were even more so. Pasha had been an energetic opponent of the Taliban and an open and cooperative counterpart for the Americans at the ISI. “Pasha was always their blue-eyed boy,” the official said. But in the weeks and months after the raid, Pasha and the ISI press office strenuously denied that they had any knowledge of Bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad. Colleagues at The Times began questioning officials in Washington about which high-ranking officials in Pakistan might also have been aware of Bin Laden’s whereabouts, but everyone suddenly clammed up. It was as if a decision had been made to contain the damage to the relationship between the two governments. “There’s no smoking gun,” officials in the Obama administration began to say.

The haul of handwritten notes, letters, computer files and other information collected from Bin Laden’s house during the raid suggested otherwise, however. It revealed regular correspondence between Bin Laden and a string of militant leaders who must have known he was living in Pakistan, including Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, the founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a pro-Kashmiri group that has also been active in Afghanistan, and Mullah Omar of the Taliban. Saeed and Omar are two of the ISI’s most important and loyal militant leaders. Both are protected by the agency. Both cooperate closely with it, restraining their followers from attacking the Pakistani state and coordinating with Pakistan’s greater strategic plans. Any correspondence the two men had with Bin Laden would probably have been known to their ISI handlers.

Bin Laden did not rely only on correspondence. He occasionally traveled to meet aides and fellow militants, one Pakistani security official told me. “Osama was moving around,” he said, adding that he heard so from jihadi sources. “You cannot run a movement without contact with people.” Bin Laden traveled in plain sight, his convoys always knowingly waved through any security checkpoints.

In 2009, Bin Laden reportedly traveled to Pakistan’s tribal areas to meet with the militant leader Qari Saifullah Akhtar. Informally referred to as the “father of jihad,” Akhtar is considered one of the ISI’s most valuable assets. According to a Pakistani intelligence source, he was the commander accused of trying to kill Bhutto on her return in 2007, and he is credited with driving Mullah Omar out of Afghanistan on the back of a motorbike in 2001 and moving Bin Laden out of harm’s way just minutes before American missile strikes on his camp in 1998. After the Sept. 11 attacks, he was detained several times in Pakistan. Yet he was never prosecuted and was quietly released each time by the ISI. At his meeting with Bin Laden in August 2009, Akhtar is reported to have requested Al Qaeda’s help in mounting an attack on the Pakistani army headquarters in Rawalpindi. Intelligence officials learned about the meeting later that year from interrogations of men involved in the attack. Information on the meeting was compiled in a report seen by all of the civilian and military intelligence agencies, security officials at the Interior Ministry and American counterterrorism officials. At the meeting, Bin Laden rejected Akhtar’s request for help and urged him and other militant groups not to fight Pakistan but to serve the greater cause — the jihad against America. He warned against fighting inside Pakistan because it would destroy their home base: “If you make a hole in the ship, the whole ship will go down,” he said.

He wanted Akhtar and the Taliban to accelerate the recruitment and training of fighters so they could trap United States forces in Afghanistan with a well-organized guerrilla war. Bin Laden said that Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and the Indian Ocean region would be Al Qaeda’s main battlefields in the coming years, and that he needed more fighters from those areas. He even offered naval training for militants, saying that the United States would soon exit Afghanistan and that the next war would be waged on the seas. Akhtar, in his mid-50s, remains at large in Pakistan. He is still active in jihadi circles and in running madrasas — an example of a militant commander whom the ISI has struggled to control yet is too valuable for them to lock up or eliminate.

In trying to prove that the ISI knew of Bin Laden’s whereabouts and protected him, I struggled for more than two years to piece together something other than circumstantial evidence and suppositions from sources with no direct knowledge. Only one man, a former ISI chief and retired general, Ziauddin Butt, told me that he thought Musharraf had arranged to hide Bin Laden in Abbottabad. But he had no proof and, under pressure, claimed in the Pakistani press that he’d been misunderstood. Finally, on a winter evening in 2012, I got the confirmation I was looking for. According to one inside source, the ISI actually ran a special desk assigned to handle Bin Laden. It was operated independently, led by an officer who made his own decisions and did not report to a superior. He handled only one person: Bin Laden. I was sitting at an outdoor cafe when I learned this, and I remember gasping, though quietly so as not to draw attention. (Two former senior American officials later told me that the information was consistent with their own conclusions.) This was what Afghans knew, and Taliban fighters had told me, but finally someone on the inside was admitting it. The desk was wholly deniable by virtually everyone at the ISI — such is how supersecret intelligence units operate — but the top military bosses knew about it, I was told.
America’s failure to fully understand and actively confront Pakistan on its support and export of terrorism is one of the primary reasons President Karzai has become so disillusioned with the United States. As American and NATO troops prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of this year, the Pakistani military and its Taliban proxy forces lie in wait, as much a threat as any that existed in 2001.

In January 2013, I visited the Haqqania madrasa to speak with senior clerics about the graduates they were dispatching to Afghanistan. They agreed to let me interview them and gave the usual patter about it being each person’s individual choice to wage jihad. But there was also continuing fanatical support for the Taliban. “Those who are against the Taliban, they are the liberals, and they only represent 5 percent of Afghans,” the spokesman for the madrasa told me. He and his fellow clerics were set on a military victory for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moreover, he said, “it is a political fact that one day the Taliban will take power. The white flag of the Taliban will fly again over Kabul, inshallah.”

Pakistani security officials, political analysts, journalists and legislators warned of the same thing. The Pakistani military was still set on dominating Afghanistan and was still determined to use the Taliban to exert influence now that the United States was pulling out.

Kathy Gannon of The Associated Press reported in September that militants from Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, were massing in the tribal areas to join the Taliban and train for an anticipated offensive into Afghanistan this year. In Punjab, mainstream religious parties and banned militant groups were openly recruiting hundreds of students for jihad, and groups of young men were being dispatched to Syria to wage jihad there. “They are the same jihadi groups; they are not 100 percent under control,” a former Pakistani legislator told me. “But still the military protects them.”

The United States was neither speaking out against Pakistan nor changing its policy toward a government that was exporting terrorism, the legislator lamented. “How many people have to die before they get it? They are standing by a military that protects, aids and abets people who are going against the U.S. and Western mission in Afghanistan, in Syria, everywhere.”
When I remember the beleaguered state of Afghanistan in 2001, I marvel at the changes the American intervention has fostered: the rebuilding, the modernity, the bright graduates in every office. Yet after 13 years, more than a trillion dollars spent, 120,000 foreign troops deployed at the height of the war and tens of thousands of lives lost, Afghanistan’s predicament has not changed: It remains a weak state, prey to the ambitions of its neighbors and extremist Islamists. This is perhaps an unpopular opinion, but to pull out now is, undeniably, to leave with the job only half-done.

Meanwhile, the real enemy remains at large."

This article is adapted from “The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001-2014,” to be published next month by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.





Race to the top

The heart of the free enterprise system is competition between different entities - commercial and financial- that vie for customers on a level playing field under a set of agreed upon rules and conditions and a watchful regulator in those areas where the competition is not sufficient. This approach has given the western world its economic growth and development over the last few decades and it is held up as model for the developing world as they embark on their growth path.

The same concept has been applied in other walks of life with great degree of success. A few years ago, the Obama administration initiated a $ 4 billion program called the "Race to the top" for the states in the US. “America will not succeed in the 21st century unless we do a far better job of educating our sons and daughters… And the race starts today. I am issuing a challenge to our nation’s
governors and school boards, principals and teachers, businesses and non-profits, parents and
students: if you set and enforce rigorous and challenging standards and assessments; if you put
outstanding teachers at the front of the classroom; if you turn around failing schools – your state
can win a Race to the Top grant that will not only help students outcompete workers around the
world, but let them fulfill their God-given potential.” (President Barack Obama July 24, 2009 )

 The underlying structure was that the state would submit proposals to the federal government for improvement of the state educational system according to a defined plan and the federal government would fund them to achieve the stated targets. While the design of these programs was left to the states, they had to comply with certain minimum targets of achievement for their students. Through the Race to the Top, the States were asked to advance reforms around four specific areas:
Awards in Race to the Top went to States that were leading the way with ambitious yet achievable plans for implementing coherent, compelling, and comprehensive education reform. Thus Race to the Top winners  helped trail-blaze effective reforms and provide examples for States and local school districts throughout the country to follow as they too were hard at work on reforms that can transform schools for decades to come. The program has been an unqualified success and has led the various states to experiment with innovative approaches to educational reform. 

The Obama administration’s Race to the Top initiative has shown that competitive grant 
programs can be a powerful spur to innovation in education. Most of the 12 states that were 
awarded grants this year — and the more than 30 states that changed education policies in hopes 
of winning grants — would never have attempted reform on this scale without the promise of 
federal help. 

A similar approach is visible in other fields - say basketball. During the  month of March, the entire country is agog with various colleges vying for the national basketball trophy. To reach the final four is considered to the be peak of achievement for a college. The key again is the same - a free participation of teams irrespective of geography, size or endowment. The ivy league schools compete on equal terms with the smallest of schools. And during the month the real joy is to see the most prominent schools be toppled by the tiniest of schools and the emergence of talent that few even knew existed.

Application of this concept in various fields may well fetch rewards that we are not even aware of. Some of these are already visible - in a sense the "American Idol" follows the same principle. A countrywide search of fresh voices leads to a group of singers who vie for the title of American Idol and in the process, it identifies talent that few knew existed. And these singers can go on to get contracts with recording companies, who issue their CDs to the already waiting customers.

Many other countries have gone on to expand these concepts - to dramas, comedians, ghazals, classical music. And all of these have provided a ready built platform for fresh talent to emerge and for commercial companies to expand their customer base and profits. This approach could even be extended to develop "pointy headed bureaucrats". A program could select- through a merit based system- a few among them to proceed to International Schools like Harvard, Stanford etc for two year programs. On return they would become what their name implies "civil servants".

Another area that may be worth exploring are those where there is a paucity of talent in the country. Let us say India needs top quality geologists- they can design a program similar to the race to the top inviting students from around the country to submit programs and plans for their future studies. Based on the quality of their submissions, the selected few can be given scholarships to go abroad to a top notch university in the world with a provision that they will return and serve in the country for a number of years. You could design similar programs for young professors working in universities in India and abroad thus finding out talent for our country's development. 

Clearly the outlay for these programs will be minimal but the results can be resounding.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

The unlikely crusader



In every country, independence movements begin with an individual burning with passion and commitment who is able to mobilize the many with his charisma.

In India it was Nehru who left a promising legal career to plunge into the freedom movement. In s Africa Nelson Mandela mobilized thousands from his prison cell.. Lech salsa was another one of those charismTic individuals who led his country.s freedom movement.

It was bobby Kennedy who said...“[There is] the belief there is nothing one man or one woman can do against the enormous array of the world's ills-against misery and ignorance, injustice and violence. Yet many of the world's greatest movements, of thought and action, have flowed from the work of a single man. A young monk began the Protestant Reformation, a young general extended an empire from Macedonia to the borders of the earth, and a young woman reclaimed the territory of France. It was a young Italian explorer who discovered the New World, and the thirty-two-year-old Thomas Jefferson who proclaimed that all men are created equal.

"Give me a place to stand," said Archimedes, "and I will move the world." These men moved the world, and so can we all. ... Thousands of unknown men and women in Europe resisted the occupation of the Nazis and many died, but all added to the ultimate strength and freedom of their countries. It is from numberless diverse acts of courage and belief that human history is shaped. Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring those ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance.” Today the voices – the ‘ripples’ – are from Tibet, from Libya, from Syria, and from thousands of other spots around the globe where people find themselves unfairly subjected to the power of others including India today.

It is true that ".Few will have the greatness to bend history itself, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events, and in the total of all those acts will be written the history of this generation".

We never know from whence thse individuals will emerge and she. Yes there will be false messiahs who will crash and burn in short order. But we do owe it to ourselves to look out for these individual in our lifetime.

In recent months there is one very promising. Young man who has given up a comfortable career to plunge into the maelstrom of Indian politics to try and make a difference. Will he be able to even make a small dent in the corrupt environment of India or fight the pores that today control the levers of power?

But we do need to give this emerging charismatic young man  look and mobilize support for his efforts.

Arvind kejriwal sprang out of nowhere to electrify the country. ..
If you’ve been following the news, you’re unlikely to have missed the  passionate voice of Arvind Kejriwal, the 42-year-old Haryana-born activist, who is determined to tackle corruption and help change the way India is governed.

An IIT-trained mechanical engineer, Kejriwal joined the Indian Revenue Service (IRS) in 1995 but resigned after five years there. While he was an Additional Commissioner of Income Tax in Delhi, Kejriwal quietly started Parivartan, an organization that has never been officially registered. It is run by a few young volunteers who have helped thousands of citizens get everyday benefits—like a ration card or an electricity connection—without paying bribes to government officials. Parivartan [which means change] is also spearheading research into the right to information (RTI) and governance issues. Kejriwal, a 2006 winner of the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership, was also instrumental in campaigning to have the Central RTI Act passed.

Kejriwal lives just outside of Delhi, with his wife Sunita of the IRS (she is a former colleague), and their two children with whom the busy activist sometimes wishes he could spend more time.

It was Kejriwal who, dejected with the long-delayed official Lokpal Bill, was instrumental in drafting the Jan Lokpal Bill, much of it deriving from his experience with Parivartan. Before going to press, we asked Kejriwal if he expected that kind of national, in fact global, response from Indians to something for which he’s been the little-known prime mover.

In a short campaign he won enough seats in Delhi to become its chief minister, a post he resigned when his anti corruption bill was rejected in the Delhi assembaly.

His aam party has now decided to fight the national elections with his party putting up over 300 candidates nationwide. Maybe he will win enough seats to make a differce! But he merits our support.

The national elections begin in April and final counting will be on May 16.

So go this site and donate to his party's  campaign.


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Monday, March 17, 2014

The elevators


We often pay little heed to the everyday objects and mechanisms that make our daily life simpler and easier. We take them for granted and think not of the idea that originated them or the inventor who created them. One of my favorites is the ubiquitous elevator. It is a mechanisms that we use daily and yet never spend any time wondering about its origins. Did you know that the elevator is over two thousand years old and that it was invented by Archimedes?

Actually the first reference to an elevator is in the works of the Roman architect Vitruvius, who reported that Archimedes (c. 287 BC – c. 212 BC) built his first elevator probably in 236 BC. In some literary sources of later historical periods, elevators were mentioned as cabs on a hemp rope and powered by hand or by animals. In 1000, the Book of Secrets by al-Muradi in Islamic Spain described the use of an elevator-like lifting device, in order to raise a large battering ram to destroy a fortress. In the 17th century the prototypes of elevators were located in the palace buildings of England and France.

While most ancient and medieval elevators used drive systems based on hoists or winders, it was the discovery of a system based on the screw drive which was perhaps the most important step in elevator technology since ancient times. The first screw drive elevator was built by Ivan Kulibin and installed in Winter Palace in 1793. It was this invention that led to the creation of modern passenger elevators. .

The development of elevators was led by the need for movement of raw materials including coal and lumber from hillsides. The technology developed by these industries and the introduction of steel beam construction worked together to provide the passenger and freight elevators in use today. Starting in the coal mines, by the mid-19th century elevators were operated with steam power and were used for moving goods in bulk in mines and factories. These steam driven devices were soon being applied to a diverse set of purposes - in 1823, two architects working in London, Burton and Hormer, built and operated a novel tourist attraction, which they called the "ascending room". It elevated paying customers to a considerable height in the centre of London, allowing them a magnificent panoramic view of the city centre.

For most city-dwellers, the elevator is an unremarkable machine that inspires none of the passion or interest that Americans afford trains, jets, and even bicycles. Without the elevator, there could be no downtown skyscrapers or residential high-rises, and city life as we know it would be impossible. In that sense, the elevator’s role in American history has been no less profound or transformative than that of the automobile. In fact, the automobile and the elevator have been locked in a “secret war” for over a century, with cars making it possible for people to spread horizontally, encouraging sprawl and suburbia, and elevators pushing them toward life in dense clusters of towering vertical columns.

If we tend to ignore the significance of elevators, it might be because riding in them tends to be such a brief, boring, and even awkward experience—one that can involve unplanned encounters between people with whom we have nothing in common, internal turmoil over where to stare, and a vaguely unpleasant awareness of the fact that we’re hanging from a cable in a long, invisible shaft.

In a new book, “Lifted,” German journalist and cultural studies professor Andreas Bernard zeroes in on this experience, tracing mankind’s relationship to the elevator back to its origins and finding that it has never been a totally comfortable one. “After 150 years, we are still not used to it,” Bernard said. “We still have not exactly learned to cope with this...mixture of intimacy and anonymity.” 

Today, as the world’s urban population explodes, and cities become denser, taller, and more crowded, America’s arsenal of elevators—900,000 at last count, according to Elevator World magazine’s 2012 Vertical Transportation Industry Profile—are a force that’s becoming more important than ever. 

Even less appreciated these days than their transformative effects on American cities are the effects that elevators have had on Americans themselves when they stepped inside of them. At first this was a central concern: As late as the 1900s, doctors worried about a nausea-inducing condition known as “elevator sickness,” caused by the sudden movement of one’s organs inside the body when an elevator came to a halting stop. Public health advocates, meanwhile, warned that the shared conveyances would spread disease among neighbors and co-workers. Other worries were psychological: As Bernard points out in his book, the concept of claustrophobia emerged in the psychiatric literature at the same time as the elevator, and the experience of being inside one was listed from the start as a primary instigator of symptoms.

Elevators also raised new questions of etiquette. One big issue was whether a man in an elevator ought to remove his hat in the presence of a woman, as he would in someone’s home or a restaurant, or keep it on, as he would on a train or a streetcar. The question reflected a basic uncertainty about what this space really was—a mode of transportation, or some kind of tiny moving room.

That was only one of the peculiar uncertainties that came with riding elevators. Another was that they felt simultaneously public and private, taking people out of the broader world while locking them into a narrow, self-contained one alongside a random assortment of colleagues, neighbors, and strangers. By bringing together people who often only kind of knew each other, elevators created vague expectations of interaction—a smile, a nod, even a bit of small talk to acknowledge that everyone on board lived or worked in the same building. Put another way, the experience of riding elevators is still marked by awkwardness and serendipity—who will I see? How long do I have to stand like this?—and as Bernard points out in his book, those qualities have made it a staple of romantic comedies, office dramas, and crime stories in which the plot requires two people to be suddenly and unexpectedly thrust together.

Its uniqueness as an environment also has allowed social scientists to use it as a fruitful laboratory for experiments on behavior. One study tested the effect of smiling on people’s willingness to stand near strangers, for instance, while another looked at how men and women choose to situate themselves in relation to each other upon boarding.

The distinctiveness of elevators as social spaces is also the reason we speak of an “elevator pitch”—so named after the one place the company CEO might spend 60 seconds as captive audience to an ambitious intern. It is this mixing of worlds that makes elevators so important. And the more opportunities modern life gives us to separate ourselves from others—by getting into our cars and escaping into our suburban homes, by hiding in our cubicles and burying our heads in our social networks—the more the elevator matters as a place that squeezes us together for a moment and forces us to grapple with one another’s existence.

Sadly, there is cause to worry about the future of these moments. The next big leap in elevator technology, already active in large new office towers, is something called “destination dispatch,” which groups people who are going to similar floors together in order to get them where they’re going more quickly. Such a system is more efficient in terms of both time and energy, but it also makes it so that people who work on far-flung floors are less likely ever to run into each other. More specifically, it may reduce the chance that someone high up in a company’s hierarchy would share an elevator ride with someone who works down below. Serendipity, in this scenario, begins to recede.

Of course, the elevator has been through changes before. Trained operators armed with cranks and levers have been replaced with buttons; motion sensors have made holding the door less of a heroic act. Through it all, it has never quite lost the strangeness that makes it so different from anything else we experience in our daily lives. 

For all the association with modernity and all the large-scale changes it has enabled, the elevator ride itself—this small, enduring moment of sharing a box with semi-strangers—has been reminding us, for 150 years, of a crucial fact about what it means to be part of a society: that even when they’re standing still, everyone around us is on their way to somewhere.



India's crony capitalists


Sambuddha Mustafi, a journalist and a Fulbright scholar analyses the crony capitalism prevalent in India today and how it sustains the country's corrupt political and economic infrastructure in this brilliant article.

"Fresh from shaking up the business community with audits of Delhi’s power firms and an FIR against the country’s biggest industrialist (he who must not be named), Arvind Kejriwal addressed the Confederation of Indian Industries. He took many attendees by surprise.

“Dhanda to zaroori hai (business is essential),” said the Aam Aadmi Party leader, reminding all that he comes from a family of small-time businessmen. “If government gets into business, there is too much corruption,” continued the former bureaucrat who has sometimes been labelled a neo-nationaliser, “only the private sector can create jobs for India’s youth.” His problem, he said, was not with capitalism, but crony capitalism.

But how much of a crony country are we compared to others? Is our industry ready to change and embrace clean capitalism? What policy carrots-and-sticks does it need?

While evaluating cronyism, a good question to ask is how much of the country’s wealth is owned by its richest people. And here, the numbers prove we are a country where too much is held by too few. And they are helped generously by government patronage. According to the Forbes rich list (2011), the 55 dollar-billionaires in India controlled over 17 per cent of its GDP; compare that to China, whose 115 billionaires controlled a mere 4 per cent. Among medium-sized economies, only in Russia (29 per cent) and Malaysia (20 per cent) did dollar-billionaires control more wealth than in India. Both Russia and Malaysia are known for large oligopolies, with cronies of political rulers controlling vast reserves of natural resources. India is in dubious company.

In the 2014 Forbes list, three Indians were richer than China’s richest man, though China’s economy is over four times larger. In 2013, India’s richest man was worth almost double of China’s richest man. This is a cause for worry, not a reason to rejoice at the brilliance of our billionaires. “If a country is generating too many billionaires relative to the size of its economy, then it is off-balance,” wrote Ruchir Sharma, emerging markets head of Morgan Stanley, in his book Breakout Nations. “If a country’s average billionaire has amassed tens of billions, not merely billions, the lack of balance could lead to stagnation (of the economy).”

At the heart of capitalism is a constant churn of ideas and businesses, what the economist Joseph Schumpeter termed creative destruction. But disproportionately powerful crony billionaires collude with policymakers to marginalise the competition: this deters innovation, and hurts the creative destruction process. So, India’s crony billionaires are actually the biggest enemies of capitalism.

Imagine Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg as a crony capitalist: he realises that WhatsApp is a competitor taking away much of his younger audience, and business. So, he colludes with powerful friends on Capitol Hill to tweak policy to ban instant messaging over smartphones. The reason given is “national security”. Instead of coughing up $19 billion to WhatsApp’s founders, as Zuckerberg did last month, he could have gotten away by paying $1 billion each to some of the Republicans and Democrats on the Hill. But the fact that Zuckerberg had to write WhatsApp a fat cheque is incentive for other innovators to create products that threaten the big capitalist. Then, Zuckerberg gets caught in a game of whack-a-mole: every time a competitor comes up, he has to dole out big cash, or risk defeat. This keeps him in check; eventually one competitor holds out and creates a company bigger than Facebook. That, in effect, is the cycle of creative destruction: what is bad for the big capitalist is often good for the entire capitalist system.

If you track the rich lists of the US, China or European nations over a period of time, you will see a constant churn of names — newcomers entering and incumbents dropping out. In India, you will mostly see the same families over decades, occasionally disturbed by a new software billionaire.
So where is India going wrong in creating a clean capitalist system? Let’s start with the preamble to the Constitution: “We, the people of India, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a sovereign socialist secular democratic republic…”

If our leaders are serious about promoting clean capitalism, they can start by removing the word “socialist” from the preamble. Clinging to an economic system (if only on paper) that has failed the world over, we display a damaging hypocrisy and unwillingness to learn from mistakes.

Further, it is this socialist consensus at the time of independence that attached a stigma to doing business, gave birth to the vile license raj, embedded cronyism, prevented mass entrepreneurship and kept India a poor nation. The best brains moved to foreign shores, where they found a free market for their ideas.

We were left with the lees. As the socialist State licensed and harassed legitimate entrepreneurs, it was the unscrupulous cronies who thrived; over time they made lots of money, with which they bought social status and became role models. A vicious cycle of cronyism was created.

To promote clean capitalism, India has to embrace and celebrate capitalism with all its imperfections, rather than treating it as a necessary evil in a constitutionally socialist State.

One can argue that China is a communist State, but has taken to capitalism with aplomb. So why does India need a constitutional amendment? Because India is a democracy that derives its spirit from the Constitution; China derives its spirit from the consensus within the Party and the vision of its leaders. No Indian leader will ever have the overarching authority of Deng Xiaoping, whose vision turned around his country’s economic direction. A visionary Indian leader will still need constitutional backing.

Beyond the Constitution, India’s competition laws need to be strengthened and implemented seriously. While The Competition Act of 2002 is a big improvement from earlier legislations, it took seven more years for it to come into force and replace the obsolete Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Act.
Experts have pointed out that the new act still leaves too many legal ambiguities, thus favouring lawyers and large firms that can hire them. For example, a large firm or cartel may get away with abusing the competition laws if its lawyers can prove their client’s “contribution to the (sic) economic development”. But the big story also lies in the seven-year delay before The Competition Act came into force: both the NDA and UPA governments went slow, unwilling to upset the big corporates that bankrolled their 2004 and 2009 election campaigns.

This brings us to the most crucial hurdle to clean capitalism in India: the crony financing of political parties, which is the backbone of corruption. Research by the Association for Democratic Reforms shows alarming opacity in funding: 75 per cent of party funds come from ‘unknown sources’, going by the Income Tax Return with the Election Commission. The Congress and the BJP are the biggest offenders, with 3,000 crore between them totally unaccounted for. On this issue there is broad consensus among parties: they see themselves above scrutiny. They hide behind the 19th century argument that their donor base is too large, and the donations too small for them to maintain proper accounts.

Kejriwal’s party can rightfully claim the moral high ground on this issue: its crowd-sourced funding model has left the old school stunned. Going into the Lok Sabha elections, corrupt political funding is set to become Kejriwal’s big pitch to show that Congress and BJP are the same: Mukesh Ambani is the popular symbol he uses to create this equivalence....

But is Indian business ready for the clean capitalism challenge? If politics threw up Aam Aadmi Party, does Indian business have its own insurgents ready to take on the old guard? From the lukewarm reception to Kejriwal’s speech, it seems they are still nervous of this new, unknown element over which they don’t have much control. Modi and the BJP are the safe, old school bet for India Inc. It’s busy filling the coffers of the potential winning horse, hoping for returns if he comes to power. Small wonder then, that corporates also joined political parties in demanding that funding remains opaque: they fear political vendetta if they backed the wrong horse.

But ultimately, it’s this myopic view of Indian corporates that holds them back from greatness. The corrupt, crony system dissuades good people from joining both politics and business: professions that create entry barriers for talented, honest individuals can only remain mediocre. By not taking up the clean capitalism challenge, by continuing to put its faith in the old school idea of mutual back-scratching with politicians, India Inc has only decided to wallow in its own mediocrity.

Capitalism’s image problem in India is compounded by the parsimony of its capitalists. India ranks 133 in the World Giving Index, even below Bangladesh (109) and Nepal (115). Private charity contributions as a percentage of GDP are only 0.4 per cent here, compared with 1.3 in the UK and 2.2 in the US. In 2011, corporate philanthropy was only $1.5 billion dollars in India according to Bain, though its 46 richest people had a net worth of $176 billion.

But there is hope yet: the 2012 Bain report showed that younger high-net-worth Indians, especially those below the age of 30, stand out in their commitment to ‘give back’. Education is the most favoured cause, followed by food and shelter. There’s reason to believe India’s next generation of capitalists and billionaires will be of a better stock: they will be more involved in causes and demand cleaner systems for political donations, even if the current crop are happy with the status quo."