Few countries have grown so rapidly as Vietnam has in the last two decades - the average economic growth rate has been over 8 % per annum. Fewer countries have faced down not one but three dominant powers of the day, in war - China, France and US- and emerged triumphant. Yet in my visit in 2010 for two weeks, I wrote that I found an undercurrent of anxiety in the mood of the country reflected in its leadership and in the media. It was vague and unformed and very rarely explicitly discussed but to me it was an ever present ghost at the party. The very success of the country seemed to leave many puzzled and sometime confused as if the success had come too easily and the future seemed undefined when there seemed no more mountains left to climb.
I had first come to Vietnam over 20 years, lived here for over 8 years during the nineties and was now returning after an absence of five years. It was a completely different world that I encountered. Streets were filled with the latest model of cars, there were gleaming shopping malls everywhere, and restaurants were packed not with expatriates but locals. There were signs of prosperity everywhere with multi-storied buildings and five star hotels coming up at every corner of the two cities I visited- Hanoi and HCMC. When I first came here twenty years ago, there were no taxis, no hotels and certainly no cars on the streets. Perhaps all that provided me some perspective and some ability to decipher the vague issues that existed but were left undiscussed.
The dominant ones were- the feeling of rapid development without values. It recalled for me the dilemma that Gandhiji had illuminated over a half a century ago: that there could be no " politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice." And that every nation must enshrine some core values in their national life and character. The passionate nationalism of the past few decades had yet to find a new definition in the new era of economic development.
All recent politics and policies seemed without a clear vision. Where was the country headed? Did they want to be another China, Korea or did they want to emulate the US? What were the choices and which ones did the leadership seek? What were the trade offs that needed to be made and could the country get by without calling for any sacrifice from their citizens? The absence of clarity of vision underlay an anxiety about the future that their present prosperity belied.
While the future vision was blurred, the path to advancement required choices that few in leadership seemed to relish making. Thus the recognition that the system needed much greater efficiency in governance was matched by an equal reluctance to tackle the "culture of entitlement" in the bureaucracy. Administration grew in size even as there was increased recognition that the civil services were the key constraints to change and any growth.
Aggressive organizational changes were designed and implemented but unmatched by any effort to bring in new blood. So the organizational blocks became ever more complicated, helped along by international donors and consultants, yet the chairs were still occupied by the old guard, the very ones whose lack of expertise and initiative had created the problems in the first place. The young were reluctant to enter public service except for the careerists but the government was reluctant to trust the open market system for its recruitment of the talent it sorely needed for the new challenges that lay ahead.
There was a desire to grow globally and become a global player, yet an extreme reluctance to permit open competition of any kind in the system, except under very controlled circumstances and except for the low level business retail efforts. There was a growing facade of competitive frameworks but without development of the key ingredients- meaningful competitors functioning under an independent regulatory system.
Despite the almost universal education the country enjoyed and relatively open access to internet and TV, there was still a degree of insularity that seemed to persist. There were few attempts to inculcate public service - domestically or overseas- as the intelligentsia still struggled with the fact that they were "developed" but still felt "developing".
There were signs of enthusiastic consumption everywhere- but with the older generation that had lived through the war, there was only cautious hedonism, while the younger generation pursued pleasure and money in a Gekko like greed with the creed that " money was good".
Many had, however, started to recognize that Armani and Dunhill shops in hotel arcades and ever growing new shopping malls- however unoccupied they may be- were really not an accurate measure of the country's growth or development. The issue that bedeviled them was what should be a truer measure of their forward progress. Should it be the US constitutional guarantee of " right to happiness" for all its citizens or should it be the European quest for universal equality? Should they set their sights on the Indian version of democracy and secular governance or the Chinese version of a modern day " big brother" government? How should the transition from the authoritarian leadership to a greater measure of local democracy take place? Was the national parliament an adequate measure of popular participation in public life?
These were all questions that will need to be answered as Vietnam moves forward-- as it surely will.
I returned last year and during the past few weeks have been asking my hosts and other friends about what had not changed in twenty years and what had not based on their perspective at the ground level. The answers were revealing for not only what the government had managed to do right but also what still needed to be done. Here are the five areas these questions had elicited where action was needed.
Corruption. The level and extent of corruption had remained unchanged in the public perception. Few had any real answers on how this problem could or should be tackled. While not claiming any unique insight, there are a few things that action can be taken on. One, a greater focus on e procurement both at central and provincial levels as a move towards greater transparency. Setting up of provincial ombudsmen to impart a greater sense of accountability could be another action. Declaration of personal assets of those in power could be another requirement for any advancement.
Leadership and bureaucratic change. Attitudes of the powerful to the public at large had remained unchanged. These are long term issues requiring long term strategies. Here area a few ideas: for developing leaders of the future – create an ASEAN peace corps based on the U.S experience. Finance a few think tanks and a few great research institutes to provide a sustained input from outside the existing systems. In the long term the present bureaucrats and elites will shift to the private sector for greater rewards and they will be gradually replaced by the educated from the rural areas. If not careful, these new bureaucrats will tend to be coarser and cruder with less education and perhaps greater proclivity to corruption and inefficient behavior. So select 50-100 promising young people from the provinces and send them abroad for training and education as they on their return could form the infrastructure for growth in the future.
Education. There was a great appreciation of increased opportunity but a realization that the quality of education had not kept pace with the demands of the modern society. Rather than trying to do it from the top down, develop a new model – a good model would be the “race to the top” of the U.S.
Health. Again a great appreciation for the increased availability but now emerging concerns about quality of care and medicines. There is need for government entry into quality control and a degree of certification to assure the populace about quality.
Infrastructure. There is a need to move to city counter magnets rather than satellite cities as seems to be the pattern now. This means a greater focus on the provincial cities but providing them with a wider range of attractions. At first the rural citizens will move to the provincial cities rather than to the major metropolises alone. The cost of developing metropolises is considerably greater than it would be for the provincial cities. One approach would be to single out particular cities each with its own unique selling brand- football city, museum city, selling malls, entertainment centre, drama center, etc etc. To a certain extent this is already happening – Dalat, He, Danang, Halong = all have their own unique aura. This needs to be expanded to a greater number of towns in the provinces.
Vietnam, as usual, will define its own way into the future. Perhaps they will not need to make all the mistakes others have made before embarking on the right path.