What happens when we die? Does the light just go out and that's that—the million-year nap? As one ages, one of the interesting thoughts that occupy ones mind is what is there in the afterlife? Questions range from what happens to a person's essence after death to more mundane ones like “What will I do all day”? “Is there a place to plug in my lap-top?”
The notion that there is a life after this one on Earth is a widely held belief that predates recorded history. While cultures like that of the ancient Egyptians believed existence continued in "the Land of the Dead," the more modern Christian beliefs offer an afterlife in Heaven as a reward or in Hell as a punishment. Even more recent ideas suggest that life might continue in another dimension or plane of existence - perhaps even on another planet. Whatever the ideas, it's clear that humans want to believe - perhaps even need to believe in life after death.
Mary Roach, in her book “Spook”, examines an array of contemporary and historical soul-searchers: scientists, schemers, engineers, mediums, all trying to prove (or disprove) that life goes on after we die.
She starts her visit in the outskirts of Delhi chasing a claim of reincarnation by a five year old who could remember his past life in great details. What Mary did was to find the person who had recently died whose life mirrored the claims of the five year old. There were enough similarities to provoke research but not enough to provide proof.
In her search she then goes on to a University of Virginia operating room where cardiologists have installed equipment near the ceiling to study out-of-body near-death experiences. Along the way, she enrolls in an English medium school, gets electromagnetically haunted at a university in Ontario, and visits a Duke University professor with a plan to weigh the consciousness of a leech. She goes to the University of Arizona and meets with mediums currently working today; she tries her hand at telecommunication with the dead in the forests of California; and she even tries her hand at getting in touch with her own inner medium at a school in England. Her historical wanderings unearth soul-seeking philosophers who rummaged through cadavers and calves' heads, a North Carolina lawsuit that established legal precedence for ghosts, and the last surviving sample of "ectoplasm" in a Cambridge University archive.
Roach is dogged in her approach as she examines each phenomenon through the lens of scientific fact. In the end, however, she usually walks away skeptical.
A completely different approach is taken by David Eaglemen in his new book “Sum”. Since science could not prove the contours of the afterlife, whether it was the 72 virgins waiting in line or St Peter with a tablet as a gatekeeper, he felt free to imagine alternate afterlives that could be true.
In one afterlife, you discover that God understands the complexities of life. She had originally structured her universe with a binary categorization of good and evil. But She soon realized that humans could be good in many ways and evil men may have a lot of good in them. How to categorize them? A computer program to weigh all in balance and give a verdict seemed so, well, automated. So She decided She would grant everyone a place in heaven and that everyone would be treated equally. So was born true equality. But the communists were baffled because they have achieved true equality but only with the help of a God they don’t believe in. The meritocrats are abashed because they are stuck for eternity in an incentive less system with a bunch of pinkos. The conservatives have no penniless to disparage and the liberals have no downtrodden to promote. The only thing everyone is now agreed upon is that now they are all truly in Hell.
In the metamorphosis afterlife, you find that there are three deaths. The first is when the body ceases to function. The second is when the body is consigned to the grave. The third is that moment, sometime in the future, when your name is spoken for the last time. And all wait in the lobby until the third death. Some do not want to be remembered for the sins they committed in the past. But that is “the curse of the room, since we live in the heads of those who remember us, we lose control of our lives and become what they want us to be.”
In Mirror afterlife, you find that you were much better at seeing the truth about others than you were at seeing yourself and so navigated your life with the help of others who held up mirrors for you. People praised your good qualities and criticized your bad habits, and these perspectives helped you guide your life. In this way, much of your existence took place in the eyes, ears and fingertips of others. But in this afterlife, all of the people with whom you have ever come into contact are gathered and all their mirrors are held up in front of you so that you can see yourself clearly for the first time.
In one afterlife, you relive all your experiences in carefully categorized groups: sleeping 30 years straight, sitting five months on the toilet, spending 200 days in the shower, and so forth. In another, you can be whatever you want, including a horse that forgets its original humanity. There are afterlives where you meet God, in one a God who endlessly reads Frankenstein, lamenting the tragic lot of creators; in another a God, female this time, in whose immense corpus earth is a mere cell. In one afterlife you may find that God is the size of a microbe and is unaware of your existence. In another, your creators are a species of dim witted creatures who built us to figure out what they could not. In a different version of the afterlife you work as a background character in other peoples dreams. Or that afterlife contains only those people you remember or that the hereafter includes thousands of previous gods who no longer attract followers. In some afterlives you are split into all your different ages; in some you are forced to live with annoying versions of yourself that represent what you could have been. Perhaps we are mobile robots for cosmic mapmakers or we are experimental subjects for gods trying to understand what makes couples stick together. There are a host of other possibilities…
What both these books offer is an interesting insight into one of the most perplexing conundrum of human life- what happens in the after life. But neither offers any scientific evidence to bolster their viewpoint. The journey however is a delight as both are delightful raconteurs.
A final thought from Mary Roach: “ We live life as though we'll always be around, as though there'll always be a tomorrow in which we can do the things we dream about and say the things we want to say to our loved ones. I would encourage people to get real about their limited time on earth. Let the specter of death inspire you to start doing the things that matter to you. Just, you know, on the off chance that there is no afterlife in which to do them.”
anil
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Sex, anyone ?
Ever since Bob Dole extolled the virtues of Viagra some ten years ago after his losing campaign against Bill Clinton, the TV screens in the US have been filled with ads urging everyone to join the pleasure caravan with blue colored pills. The main foci of these ad campaigns from the four or five different manufacturers has been on length- length of time to get there, length of time to stay there and well, just length!
Typically these TV ads begin with soft romantic music. In one ad a couple strolls into the frame holding hands and looking soulfully at each other—note that the age of the couple seems to increase as the evening wears on. Both say how the little blue pill has saved their marriage. A second ad has a more blunt message where a guy attempts to throw a football through a tire. The football keeps bouncing out, and the poor guy's face is a portrait of futility. When he takes pill, however, he rams the football through the hole—straight and true, again and again, with a great big smile. A third ad talks about the ability to be ready when you want to be and that over a 36 hour period while a fourth ad simply shows a line of wide eyed women lining up next to a hugely beaming man who has just taken the pill. But in all cases the spell is soon broken. First the music becomes louder, the screen darkens and the fonts become smaller- much smaller- as a voice in the background says quickly don’t take this pill if you have high blood pressure, or hypertension or a litany of other complaints. Then the music becomes even louder, and the voice, even softer, telling the viewer of the possible side effects of the pill. It seems that the side effects could range from headaches, facial flushing to an upset stomach. There could be a sudden loss of hearing with ringing in the ears or even a sudden loss of vision. Great, you can be ready at any time but you may not be able to see anything or hear anything! And the final indignity, the ads warn you, “if the erection may lasts more than four hours, go immediately to the hospital”.
The fact is that all these side effects were artfully concealed from the buying public till the FDA insisted that not only must the bottles be labeled but also the ads touting the product on TV. So the soulful ads needed to add the harsh reality of specific side effects such as nausea, abdominal pain, back pain, photosensitivity, abnormal vision, eye pain, facial oedema, hypotension, palpitation, tachycardia, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, itch, and priapism. One had to wonder if the cure was worse than the disease!
However Viagra does have other uses, for example, a low-concentration solution in water significantly prolongs the time before cut flowers wilt; one experiment showed a doubling in time from one week to two weeks. It helps in the prevention and treatment of altitude sickness such as that suffered by mountain climbers. And, if it helps, Viagra can aid jet lag recovery in hamsters. Of course you wonder since when have hamsters become frequent fliers! So it is a versatile pill, maybe.
One would imagine that the possible side effects would put off most people but the ad industry in the US is a burgeoning font of money -the US spent a total of $ 136 billion in 2008. The standard half-hour of television contains 22 minutes of program and 8 minutes of commercials - 6 minutes for national advertising and 2 minutes for local. Highly-watched programs can command rates in the millions of dollars. For example, a 30-second spot during the 2008 Superbowl sold for $2.9 million. One third of the ads on TV are for automobiles while about 10 % are for pharmaceutical products.
Despite the popularity of some advertisements, many consider them to be an annoyance for a number of reasons. The main reason may be that the sound volume of advertisements tends to be higher (and in some cases much higher) than that of regular programming. The increasing number of advertisements, as well as overplaying of the same advertisement, are secondary annoyance factors. A third might be the increasing ability to advertise on television, prompting ad campaigns by everyone from cell-phone companies and fast food restaurants to local businesses and small businesses. And of course some ads are just plain offensive and manipulative.
There are different ways that the TV ad industry seeks to influence the viewers to buy their products. One expert explains that there are twelve different types of ads--the first format is the "demo” which is a visual demonstration of a product's capabilities. The second seeks to "show the need or problem” by first, making it clear that something's not up to snuff in the consumer's life and then introducing the remedy—which is, of course, the product they are selling. Sometime the ad will employ a "symbol, analogy, or exaggerated graphic" to represent the problem. Others will use a "comparison" to show that their product is superior to those of the competitors. Another follows the "exemplary story" where the ads weave a narrative that helps illustrate the product's benefits. A popular approach is use the "benefit causes story" where the ad relies on imagining a trail of events that might be caused by the product's benefit. The simplest formula is using famous people to directly tout the product or the advertiser may showcase the type of people it hopes you'll associate with the product. Often these will be hip, funny, or good-looking people. But sometimes the associated users are goofy or geeky—it depends on the target market. Some ads will use the "unique personality property" which highlights something indigenous to the product that will make it stand out while others may parody the product. What all these approaches have in common is their ability to play on the viewers concerns persuading them to buy products they do not need or whose absence they had not hitherto felt like these famous pills that now dominate the airwaves.
An elderly friend was examining a number of these bottles that promised immediate ecstasy with great care. When I asked him why it was taking him so long to make up his mind, he replied that “I am trying to decide what I want to risk today – blindness or deafness.”
It puts one in mind of Jack Benny when was confronted on his show with a gun-toting individual who said:
"Your money or your life."
Benny hesitated. So the hold-up artist repeated:
"Your money or your life."
After more hesitation, Benny said impatiently:
"I'm thinking. I'm thinking."
Typically these TV ads begin with soft romantic music. In one ad a couple strolls into the frame holding hands and looking soulfully at each other—note that the age of the couple seems to increase as the evening wears on. Both say how the little blue pill has saved their marriage. A second ad has a more blunt message where a guy attempts to throw a football through a tire. The football keeps bouncing out, and the poor guy's face is a portrait of futility. When he takes pill, however, he rams the football through the hole—straight and true, again and again, with a great big smile. A third ad talks about the ability to be ready when you want to be and that over a 36 hour period while a fourth ad simply shows a line of wide eyed women lining up next to a hugely beaming man who has just taken the pill. But in all cases the spell is soon broken. First the music becomes louder, the screen darkens and the fonts become smaller- much smaller- as a voice in the background says quickly don’t take this pill if you have high blood pressure, or hypertension or a litany of other complaints. Then the music becomes even louder, and the voice, even softer, telling the viewer of the possible side effects of the pill. It seems that the side effects could range from headaches, facial flushing to an upset stomach. There could be a sudden loss of hearing with ringing in the ears or even a sudden loss of vision. Great, you can be ready at any time but you may not be able to see anything or hear anything! And the final indignity, the ads warn you, “if the erection may lasts more than four hours, go immediately to the hospital”.
The fact is that all these side effects were artfully concealed from the buying public till the FDA insisted that not only must the bottles be labeled but also the ads touting the product on TV. So the soulful ads needed to add the harsh reality of specific side effects such as nausea, abdominal pain, back pain, photosensitivity, abnormal vision, eye pain, facial oedema, hypotension, palpitation, tachycardia, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, itch, and priapism. One had to wonder if the cure was worse than the disease!
However Viagra does have other uses, for example, a low-concentration solution in water significantly prolongs the time before cut flowers wilt; one experiment showed a doubling in time from one week to two weeks. It helps in the prevention and treatment of altitude sickness such as that suffered by mountain climbers. And, if it helps, Viagra can aid jet lag recovery in hamsters. Of course you wonder since when have hamsters become frequent fliers! So it is a versatile pill, maybe.
One would imagine that the possible side effects would put off most people but the ad industry in the US is a burgeoning font of money -the US spent a total of $ 136 billion in 2008. The standard half-hour of television contains 22 minutes of program and 8 minutes of commercials - 6 minutes for national advertising and 2 minutes for local. Highly-watched programs can command rates in the millions of dollars. For example, a 30-second spot during the 2008 Superbowl sold for $2.9 million. One third of the ads on TV are for automobiles while about 10 % are for pharmaceutical products.
Despite the popularity of some advertisements, many consider them to be an annoyance for a number of reasons. The main reason may be that the sound volume of advertisements tends to be higher (and in some cases much higher) than that of regular programming. The increasing number of advertisements, as well as overplaying of the same advertisement, are secondary annoyance factors. A third might be the increasing ability to advertise on television, prompting ad campaigns by everyone from cell-phone companies and fast food restaurants to local businesses and small businesses. And of course some ads are just plain offensive and manipulative.
There are different ways that the TV ad industry seeks to influence the viewers to buy their products. One expert explains that there are twelve different types of ads--the first format is the "demo” which is a visual demonstration of a product's capabilities. The second seeks to "show the need or problem” by first, making it clear that something's not up to snuff in the consumer's life and then introducing the remedy—which is, of course, the product they are selling. Sometime the ad will employ a "symbol, analogy, or exaggerated graphic" to represent the problem. Others will use a "comparison" to show that their product is superior to those of the competitors. Another follows the "exemplary story" where the ads weave a narrative that helps illustrate the product's benefits. A popular approach is use the "benefit causes story" where the ad relies on imagining a trail of events that might be caused by the product's benefit. The simplest formula is using famous people to directly tout the product or the advertiser may showcase the type of people it hopes you'll associate with the product. Often these will be hip, funny, or good-looking people. But sometimes the associated users are goofy or geeky—it depends on the target market. Some ads will use the "unique personality property" which highlights something indigenous to the product that will make it stand out while others may parody the product. What all these approaches have in common is their ability to play on the viewers concerns persuading them to buy products they do not need or whose absence they had not hitherto felt like these famous pills that now dominate the airwaves.
An elderly friend was examining a number of these bottles that promised immediate ecstasy with great care. When I asked him why it was taking him so long to make up his mind, he replied that “I am trying to decide what I want to risk today – blindness or deafness.”
It puts one in mind of Jack Benny when was confronted on his show with a gun-toting individual who said:
"Your money or your life."
Benny hesitated. So the hold-up artist repeated:
"Your money or your life."
After more hesitation, Benny said impatiently:
"I'm thinking. I'm thinking."
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Departures
It is difficult to imagine someone making a full length movie about the care and dressing of bodies before they are cremated. Difficult but not impossible. A Japanese director,Yōjirō Takita, has taken the bold gamble in a lyrical piece of film-making that leaves the audience simultaneously uplifted and in tears. It was a full house when I saw this movie and there was nary a dry eye in the audience. (It is also the winner of the best foreign feature film at this year’s Academy Awards.)
“Departures” tells a simple story of Daigo, a young cello player who loses his job and returns with his wife to his village. Here he finds employment as one who prepares dead bodies for their viewing and subsequent cremation- a ritual known as "encoffinments". The details of the "encoffinment" are fascinating with as much attention to detail as in a tea ceremony. A "departures" specialist comes to the home of the diseased, discretely cleans the body ("Wash away the weariness and pain of this world"), changes the clothes of the deceased, poses the body and puts it into the wooden coffin that will be burned. This is done in full view of the family, yet no part of the body can be shown save the face.
But Daigo's new job is considered "unclean" by society and so unacceptable that he dare not tell his wife about it.He visits the bathhouse each night after work to scrub off "the smell of death." But despite ostracism from his friends,Daigo continues and slowly finds a new life ministering to the dead. He realizes the deeper meaning of the rituals of wiping down the body and clothing it in silk. And of restoring beauty for all eternity before the family to say their final goodbye. “Everything” reflects Daigo “done peacefully and beautifully". Departures is a loving tribute to the Japanese way of death. It shows us a place where death and the dead are treated with a respect the rest of the world should envy.
At another level, the film is also about death and the dignity that it should inspire. Death, the movie says, is a great leveler- whether you are a child or an old lady, a beloved wife or an estranged daughter, a grandmother with a taste for stockings or a son who chooses a life of woman. All need to be treated with love and dignity at their final moments. Strangely haunting in the way it lingers in the mind and heart after it’s over, Departures’ amazing achievement is in being a film about death that is truly beautiful, joyful and life-affirming. The repeated depictions of the careful and respectful honoring of the deceased’s passage to the afterlife gain resonance with each successive scene.It is a moving, powerful experience.
“The dead appear to me as serene, even beautiful” says Shinmon Aoki, author of “Coffinman: The Journal of a Buddhist Mortician,” the basis for “Departures, “During their lives I don’t know what right or wrong they might have done, but it seems to have no bearing on them now. It doesn’t matter whether their beliefs were thick or thin, whether they belonged to this denomination or that, whether they were interested in religion or not. Nothing they have done goes to making the dead wear such gentle faces.”
At another level, the movie is also a subtle morality tale and social commentary. It says no job is unclean especially if its objective is to help families to say goodbye to their loved ones. The hero is ostracized by his friends when they learn of his occupation and even his wife leaves him calling him impure, though they finally return. There is social criticism, too, particularly for the Japanese audiences. It is a little known fact that deep prejudice exists in Japan against those dealing with the dead, the untouchables, also known as burakumin. The burakumin — ethnically indistinguishable from other Japanese — are descendants of Japanese who, according to Buddhist beliefs, performed tasks considered unclean. Slaughterers, undertakers, executioners and town guards, they were called eta, which means “defiled mass”, or hinin, nonhuman. Since death was considered unclean, they were outcastes. Although they were legally liberated in 1871 with the abolition of the feudal caste system, this did not put a stop to social discrimination. The long history of taboos and myths of the buraku left a continuous legacy of social desolation. The topic of the buraku remains Japan’s biggest taboo, rarely entering private conversations and virtually ignored by the media until a movie like “Departures” comes along.
Another interesting side note to the movie is the possibility of a burakimin actually becoming the prime minister of Japan in the elections being held in August this year. For Japan, the crowning of Hiromu Nonaka as its top leader would be as significant as America’s election of its first black president.
And finally it tells you that whatever you do, you must do it passion and with grace and professionalism. It is necessary to accept that impermanence, grief and loss are basic conditions of every life. This unorthodox original story about literally touching death is a brilliant catalyst for the movie’s message of celebrating life.
And then there is the music. Here is an excerpt which will give you a sense of the haunting beauty of the entire movie.And also here and here
“Departures” tells a simple story of Daigo, a young cello player who loses his job and returns with his wife to his village. Here he finds employment as one who prepares dead bodies for their viewing and subsequent cremation- a ritual known as "encoffinments". The details of the "encoffinment" are fascinating with as much attention to detail as in a tea ceremony. A "departures" specialist comes to the home of the diseased, discretely cleans the body ("Wash away the weariness and pain of this world"), changes the clothes of the deceased, poses the body and puts it into the wooden coffin that will be burned. This is done in full view of the family, yet no part of the body can be shown save the face.
But Daigo's new job is considered "unclean" by society and so unacceptable that he dare not tell his wife about it.He visits the bathhouse each night after work to scrub off "the smell of death." But despite ostracism from his friends,Daigo continues and slowly finds a new life ministering to the dead. He realizes the deeper meaning of the rituals of wiping down the body and clothing it in silk. And of restoring beauty for all eternity before the family to say their final goodbye. “Everything” reflects Daigo “done peacefully and beautifully". Departures is a loving tribute to the Japanese way of death. It shows us a place where death and the dead are treated with a respect the rest of the world should envy.
At another level, the film is also about death and the dignity that it should inspire. Death, the movie says, is a great leveler- whether you are a child or an old lady, a beloved wife or an estranged daughter, a grandmother with a taste for stockings or a son who chooses a life of woman. All need to be treated with love and dignity at their final moments. Strangely haunting in the way it lingers in the mind and heart after it’s over, Departures’ amazing achievement is in being a film about death that is truly beautiful, joyful and life-affirming. The repeated depictions of the careful and respectful honoring of the deceased’s passage to the afterlife gain resonance with each successive scene.It is a moving, powerful experience.
“The dead appear to me as serene, even beautiful” says Shinmon Aoki, author of “Coffinman: The Journal of a Buddhist Mortician,” the basis for “Departures, “During their lives I don’t know what right or wrong they might have done, but it seems to have no bearing on them now. It doesn’t matter whether their beliefs were thick or thin, whether they belonged to this denomination or that, whether they were interested in religion or not. Nothing they have done goes to making the dead wear such gentle faces.”
At another level, the movie is also a subtle morality tale and social commentary. It says no job is unclean especially if its objective is to help families to say goodbye to their loved ones. The hero is ostracized by his friends when they learn of his occupation and even his wife leaves him calling him impure, though they finally return. There is social criticism, too, particularly for the Japanese audiences. It is a little known fact that deep prejudice exists in Japan against those dealing with the dead, the untouchables, also known as burakumin. The burakumin — ethnically indistinguishable from other Japanese — are descendants of Japanese who, according to Buddhist beliefs, performed tasks considered unclean. Slaughterers, undertakers, executioners and town guards, they were called eta, which means “defiled mass”, or hinin, nonhuman. Since death was considered unclean, they were outcastes. Although they were legally liberated in 1871 with the abolition of the feudal caste system, this did not put a stop to social discrimination. The long history of taboos and myths of the buraku left a continuous legacy of social desolation. The topic of the buraku remains Japan’s biggest taboo, rarely entering private conversations and virtually ignored by the media until a movie like “Departures” comes along.
Another interesting side note to the movie is the possibility of a burakimin actually becoming the prime minister of Japan in the elections being held in August this year. For Japan, the crowning of Hiromu Nonaka as its top leader would be as significant as America’s election of its first black president.
And finally it tells you that whatever you do, you must do it passion and with grace and professionalism. It is necessary to accept that impermanence, grief and loss are basic conditions of every life. This unorthodox original story about literally touching death is a brilliant catalyst for the movie’s message of celebrating life.
And then there is the music. Here is an excerpt which will give you a sense of the haunting beauty of the entire movie.And also here and here
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Decoding global warming
Global warming has become a major obsession in our press yet I find that few really understand the basics of the issues. Here is an attempt to decode the way the problem is presented.
First, it is clear that global warming is a reality. Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide from combustion of coal, oil, and gas; plus a few other trace gases) for a long time. There is no scientific debate on this point. The scientific community has spoken and the Nobel committee has endorsed these findings with their latest prize for Al Gore and IPCC. The IPCC- i.e. the intergovernmental panel on climate change- set up by the UN with participation from 2500 scientists in more than 130 countries, studied the issue for over a decade and came to the conclusion that climate change was real and that it was caused primarily by human intervention. Industrialization, deforestation, and pollution greatly increased atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, all greenhouse gases, which helped trap heat near Earth's surface causing global warming.
The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100. This increase could lead to large-scale food and water shortages and have catastrophic effects on wildlife.
Now what were the main causes of the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? From the IEA data, the main contributions come from the burning of coal, liquid fuels and gases. Humans have been pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in much greater quantities than can be absorbed by the oceans and plant life. In 2006, of the total carbon dioxide contribution of 29.2 billion metric tonnes, coal accounted for 42%, liquid fuels 38 % and gas 20%.
And who were the main culprits in this ?When you look at the countries contributing to the emissions of 29.2 billion metric tones in 2006, the top of the charts were the US at 5.9, China at 6.0 and Europe at 4.7 billion metric tonnes representing almost 57% of all the emissions in the world. India contributed 1.29 billion metric tonnes, slightly more than Japan at 1.25.
It is now being projected by various authorities that the total carbon dioxide emissions will grow to 40.4 billion metric tones by 2030. Of these about 25.8 billon metric tonnes or about 63% would now come from the non OECD countries with China’s share of pollution rising to 11.73 billion metric tonnes.
It is important to note that the per capita contributions from the major countries project a different picture even in 2030 – US will still emit more than 17 tonnes per capita with Japan at 9.8 and OECD Europe at 7.96 while China at 8 and India at 1.4 are far behind. It is also worth noting that despite the public outcry in the US, the per capita emissions have only gone down marginally over the last two decades- US emitted 19.6 tonnes per capita in 1990.
While the per capital contribution is a relative measure, it becomes huge when you estimate the total contribution of these countries. Thus the US would contribute 6.4 billon tonnes (16%) while China would contribute 11.73 billion tonnes (or 29 %) and India 2.11 billion tonnes(5 %) of the total 40.4 billion metric tones in 2030. OECD countries as a whole would contribute 14.6 billion metric tonnes or 37%.
It is true, however, that from 1980 till now, the US emitted 141 billion metric tonnes and OECD 122 while the contributions from China were only 76 and from India only 20 billion metric tones. And despite their public postures both the US and OECD country’s per capita contribution of carbon dioxide emission has not declined appreciably in the last twenty years. In recent years both the US and OECD countries have tried to move towards some forms of carbon emission reduction either using a carbon tax or some form of cap and trade system. An excellent analysis of these options is in this article.
In the developing countries, however, the outlook remains uncertain. And this is for one reason – control of carbon emissions is seen as possible only if economic growth is lowered. One of the forgotten statistics in all this is the fact that the carbon dioxide emissions are an outgrowth primarily of increased energy consumption in these countries. And energy consumption is almost linearly related to economic growth. Put differently, for economic growth to occur, the developing countries need energy but increased energy consumption causes increased carbon dioxide emissions.
Since the per capita GDP of China in 2006 was $4690 while that of the US was $44,830,(and corresponding energy per capita consumption was 1433 kgoe and 7768 respectively), it is clear that the countries like China and India would continue to increase their energy consumption in their attempts to reach higher levels of economic development.
So what is essential is to realize that the carbon dioxide emission problem is at heart an economic development problem. Solutions will lie in increasing the efficiency with which energy is used for economic growth as well as spurring the means for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the energy that is used by them. The first requires greater energy efficiency measures, while the later requires a shift in choice of fuel away from both coal and liquid fuels to either natural gas or renewable energy. Both require investments in new technologies. Hence the developing countries emphasis on transfer of technologies to help cushion the transition to a lower carbon based economies as well as their argument that it was the developed world which has polluted the planet in the past when they were growing economically and so needs to do more to control emissions than it has been willing to do.
The dilemma arises from the fact that if China and India were to reach the levels of the US in terms of energy consumption by 2030, an unlikely prospect, we would then be looking at world carbon dioxide emission at least double those estimated today- a prospect that nobody wants.
First, it is clear that global warming is a reality. Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide from combustion of coal, oil, and gas; plus a few other trace gases) for a long time. There is no scientific debate on this point. The scientific community has spoken and the Nobel committee has endorsed these findings with their latest prize for Al Gore and IPCC. The IPCC- i.e. the intergovernmental panel on climate change- set up by the UN with participation from 2500 scientists in more than 130 countries, studied the issue for over a decade and came to the conclusion that climate change was real and that it was caused primarily by human intervention. Industrialization, deforestation, and pollution greatly increased atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, all greenhouse gases, which helped trap heat near Earth's surface causing global warming.
The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100. This increase could lead to large-scale food and water shortages and have catastrophic effects on wildlife.
Now what were the main causes of the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? From the IEA data, the main contributions come from the burning of coal, liquid fuels and gases. Humans have been pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in much greater quantities than can be absorbed by the oceans and plant life. In 2006, of the total carbon dioxide contribution of 29.2 billion metric tonnes, coal accounted for 42%, liquid fuels 38 % and gas 20%.
And who were the main culprits in this ?When you look at the countries contributing to the emissions of 29.2 billion metric tones in 2006, the top of the charts were the US at 5.9, China at 6.0 and Europe at 4.7 billion metric tonnes representing almost 57% of all the emissions in the world. India contributed 1.29 billion metric tonnes, slightly more than Japan at 1.25.
It is now being projected by various authorities that the total carbon dioxide emissions will grow to 40.4 billion metric tones by 2030. Of these about 25.8 billon metric tonnes or about 63% would now come from the non OECD countries with China’s share of pollution rising to 11.73 billion metric tonnes.
It is important to note that the per capita contributions from the major countries project a different picture even in 2030 – US will still emit more than 17 tonnes per capita with Japan at 9.8 and OECD Europe at 7.96 while China at 8 and India at 1.4 are far behind. It is also worth noting that despite the public outcry in the US, the per capita emissions have only gone down marginally over the last two decades- US emitted 19.6 tonnes per capita in 1990.
While the per capital contribution is a relative measure, it becomes huge when you estimate the total contribution of these countries. Thus the US would contribute 6.4 billon tonnes (16%) while China would contribute 11.73 billion tonnes (or 29 %) and India 2.11 billion tonnes(5 %) of the total 40.4 billion metric tones in 2030. OECD countries as a whole would contribute 14.6 billion metric tonnes or 37%.
It is true, however, that from 1980 till now, the US emitted 141 billion metric tonnes and OECD 122 while the contributions from China were only 76 and from India only 20 billion metric tones. And despite their public postures both the US and OECD country’s per capita contribution of carbon dioxide emission has not declined appreciably in the last twenty years. In recent years both the US and OECD countries have tried to move towards some forms of carbon emission reduction either using a carbon tax or some form of cap and trade system. An excellent analysis of these options is in this article.
In the developing countries, however, the outlook remains uncertain. And this is for one reason – control of carbon emissions is seen as possible only if economic growth is lowered. One of the forgotten statistics in all this is the fact that the carbon dioxide emissions are an outgrowth primarily of increased energy consumption in these countries. And energy consumption is almost linearly related to economic growth. Put differently, for economic growth to occur, the developing countries need energy but increased energy consumption causes increased carbon dioxide emissions.
Since the per capita GDP of China in 2006 was $4690 while that of the US was $44,830,(and corresponding energy per capita consumption was 1433 kgoe and 7768 respectively), it is clear that the countries like China and India would continue to increase their energy consumption in their attempts to reach higher levels of economic development.
So what is essential is to realize that the carbon dioxide emission problem is at heart an economic development problem. Solutions will lie in increasing the efficiency with which energy is used for economic growth as well as spurring the means for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the energy that is used by them. The first requires greater energy efficiency measures, while the later requires a shift in choice of fuel away from both coal and liquid fuels to either natural gas or renewable energy. Both require investments in new technologies. Hence the developing countries emphasis on transfer of technologies to help cushion the transition to a lower carbon based economies as well as their argument that it was the developed world which has polluted the planet in the past when they were growing economically and so needs to do more to control emissions than it has been willing to do.
The dilemma arises from the fact that if China and India were to reach the levels of the US in terms of energy consumption by 2030, an unlikely prospect, we would then be looking at world carbon dioxide emission at least double those estimated today- a prospect that nobody wants.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Fathers Day thoughts
Most people remember their parents or close friends through some vignettes which have remained stuck in their memories for ever and ever. It is an accumulation of such memories that seems to define our view of their entire life. Rarely if ever do we sit down to think about placing these memories in some context to obtain a coherent and complete view of their entire life. It is these vignettes that define them for us. So it is for fathers.
When asked about their earliest memories of their fathers, many of us would have difficulty in defining them in some details. But ask us if we remember some action or thought that has defined our relationship with them, most would easily find quite few incidents from their lives.
So as I reflected on my fathers life- he has now been gone almost fifteen years- a few vignettes stand out which in a certain sense define him for me. Of them the earliest was when I asked why he became an economist. We were at that time discussing the profession I would soon choose for myself.It then came out that when he was a young student, he heard Pandit Nehru, the charismatic leader of the Indian National Congress urge all Indians to fight for complete independance on the banks of the Ravi river in 1930. He urged students to help rebuild the country and said that the country would need economists and engineers to lay the foundation for the future.That speech inspired the deep idealism in him to chose economics as his profession. ( Incidentally, mine was engineering).
Another defining incident was when I found that he chose to resign from his job as the editor of the premier economic magazine in the country, The Eastern Economist, rather than bow to the wishes of the proprietors to push the preferred policies of the industrialist who also owned the magazine.He was willing to lose his job rather than compromise on his principles.Since we had a comfortable house close to his office and we had to shift to hutments built for soldiers during the war, the change was a considerable downgrade at that time even though he found a job with the government.
A third incident occurred when I led a student movement against the powerful professor and head of the hostel at IIT, Kharagpur in the first year of my engineering course.Dr Muthanna was a tough as nails administrator who tolerated no dissent and when a group of students organized to challenge his policies and his executive abilities, he was not only outraged but he took action. Unbeknownst to me, he wrote a strong letter to my father threatening that he may be forced to expel me from the institute for my union efforts. My father sent him an equally uncompromising reply pointing out that Dr Muthana needed to deal with the students more sympathetically and that in any case it was unlikely that his son would be participating in any activities that were not right and justified. He had complete faith in my judgment and sense of responsibility.My father did not send me a copy of this letter -- indeed I found out about it only years later when I was going through his papers.
A few years later I won a scholarship to go to Berkeley but found that I had not enough money for the air ticket. I was busy selling off all my possession in order to raise the necessary funds when I received a letter from my father containing a check for the air fare.
We came to a parting of ways for a brief while when I got married and he refused to accept the choice I had made. We remained distant and silent for almost seven years- you see he had passed on his uncompromising attitude to me as well.He was a man of strong and rigid convictions. It took my children to bring him around finally which he did.And we were to spend his last years as close as we had been all our lives before the break.
And then a few years later, he was diagnosed with colon cancer requiring a major operation. I was then posted in Bombay and would fly down to be with him after the operation while my brother looked after him. He was to live with this for almost fifteen years till he died. But during this period I rarely heard him complain about the pain or the restrictions that these operations placed on him. We would discuss everything under the sun except his medical pains and problems. His courage and stoicism remained with him till the end and he refused to give up.
When I look back, it is these vignettes which define for me his life--his idealism, his courage of his convictions, his stoicism in face of pain, his love for his family and his willingness to confront life without compromise.
When asked about their earliest memories of their fathers, many of us would have difficulty in defining them in some details. But ask us if we remember some action or thought that has defined our relationship with them, most would easily find quite few incidents from their lives.
So as I reflected on my fathers life- he has now been gone almost fifteen years- a few vignettes stand out which in a certain sense define him for me. Of them the earliest was when I asked why he became an economist. We were at that time discussing the profession I would soon choose for myself.It then came out that when he was a young student, he heard Pandit Nehru, the charismatic leader of the Indian National Congress urge all Indians to fight for complete independance on the banks of the Ravi river in 1930. He urged students to help rebuild the country and said that the country would need economists and engineers to lay the foundation for the future.That speech inspired the deep idealism in him to chose economics as his profession. ( Incidentally, mine was engineering).
Another defining incident was when I found that he chose to resign from his job as the editor of the premier economic magazine in the country, The Eastern Economist, rather than bow to the wishes of the proprietors to push the preferred policies of the industrialist who also owned the magazine.He was willing to lose his job rather than compromise on his principles.Since we had a comfortable house close to his office and we had to shift to hutments built for soldiers during the war, the change was a considerable downgrade at that time even though he found a job with the government.
A third incident occurred when I led a student movement against the powerful professor and head of the hostel at IIT, Kharagpur in the first year of my engineering course.Dr Muthanna was a tough as nails administrator who tolerated no dissent and when a group of students organized to challenge his policies and his executive abilities, he was not only outraged but he took action. Unbeknownst to me, he wrote a strong letter to my father threatening that he may be forced to expel me from the institute for my union efforts. My father sent him an equally uncompromising reply pointing out that Dr Muthana needed to deal with the students more sympathetically and that in any case it was unlikely that his son would be participating in any activities that were not right and justified. He had complete faith in my judgment and sense of responsibility.My father did not send me a copy of this letter -- indeed I found out about it only years later when I was going through his papers.
A few years later I won a scholarship to go to Berkeley but found that I had not enough money for the air ticket. I was busy selling off all my possession in order to raise the necessary funds when I received a letter from my father containing a check for the air fare.
We came to a parting of ways for a brief while when I got married and he refused to accept the choice I had made. We remained distant and silent for almost seven years- you see he had passed on his uncompromising attitude to me as well.He was a man of strong and rigid convictions. It took my children to bring him around finally which he did.And we were to spend his last years as close as we had been all our lives before the break.
And then a few years later, he was diagnosed with colon cancer requiring a major operation. I was then posted in Bombay and would fly down to be with him after the operation while my brother looked after him. He was to live with this for almost fifteen years till he died. But during this period I rarely heard him complain about the pain or the restrictions that these operations placed on him. We would discuss everything under the sun except his medical pains and problems. His courage and stoicism remained with him till the end and he refused to give up.
When I look back, it is these vignettes which define for me his life--his idealism, his courage of his convictions, his stoicism in face of pain, his love for his family and his willingness to confront life without compromise.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Senior moments.
There are senior moments and senior moments. Have you had one lately? You know. You'll be talking along like at any other time in your life, and suddenly you can't remember the name of your best friend. Or the movie you saw last night. Or what you ate for lunch an hour ago? It's a sudden, embarrassing slice of silence. A senior moment.
There are others which cause more distress- like the time you were searching for your house key in Delhi when it was in Washington, or going through red lights because they looked green, or when it was easier to say “that thing” than recall a proper noun. All these senior moments creep up on you from the time you are say 50 but they become causes of concern only when your children are around you saying “Dad” or “Mom” in embarrassed tones or muttering Alzheimer’s under their breaths!
One explanation of these senior moments is the simple fact that our brains are overloaded after 50 or 60 years of input. Our brains bloat as the result of too much stuff in the head and so the forgetful symptoms begin manifesting. After all those years of cramming stuff into your head, it finally begins overflowing like a water glass unable to hold another drop without shedding something already there.
So the solution, this expert suggests, is to empty out what is already there to make enough room for more in your brain. Those dates you memorized in high school history class? They are still there, aren't they? Get rid of them. And all those kings and queens and wars aplenty. Forget them. Just think of the valuable space you will empty up. And those thousands of names back in there of folks you'll probably never even see again? There are probably hundreds of school chums alone stuck in the recesses of your head. Get rid of them. Don't worry. If they happen to be at your next high school reunion, they'll be wearing nametags. You won’t miss a thing or a name. But what we really need is a three monthly clean up system – like changing oil in a car- just dump all the irrelevant stuff out of your brain on a regular basis. You can then really enjoy the feeling of a full and often useful brain.
But seriously research now shows how you can avoid these senior moments. Besides the usual admonitions of walking for an hour, sleeping for eight, and keeping an active social life, experts advise that you need to avoid depression. Depression, they say, saturates our bodies with high levels of the stress hormone, cortisol, which can damage regions of the brain crucial to memory. A new study in Neuro-Image shows that when people brainstorm without editing their ideas, more blood flows to a memory-processing area of the brain. Growing evidence also shows that people who drink moderately are at lower risk for cognitive decline and dementia. Wines in particular seem to help with the memory. Crosswords are another excellent form of mental gymnastics, provided that you can (a) find where you last put down your glasses,(b) find the newspaper and (c) complete the crossword. Studies have shown that people who do crossword puzzles four days per week have a 48 per cent lower risk of developing dementia than those who did no crosswords at all. And best of all, eat dark chocolate- people who down a cocoa drink have a 50 percent increase in the blood streaming into memory centers of the brain.
And most importantly do not confuse these senior moments with the dreaded onset of Alzheimer's disease. It is true that Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia, affects 5.2 million Americans and is the sixth leading cause of death in the United States. But it is a long way from a senior moment to loss of memory or dementia .
Shakespeare called memory “the warder of the brain,” charged with keeping watch over an individual’s personal account of being. Today scientists describe four memory systems that process incoming information for storage and retrieval. The systems are episodic, semantic, procedural, and working. The episodic memory system is involved in remembering personal experiences, such as a phone conversation you had yesterday or the movie you watched last week. The semantic memory system manages the storage and retrieval of general knowledge and facts, such as the number of days in a year or the colors in a rainbow. The procedural memory system allows us to learn activities and skills that will then be performed automatically with little or no conscious thought. Examples are riding a bicycle or driving a car. The working memory system governs our ability to pay attention and concentrate, and it enables us to temporarily keep needed information in mind (such as a phone number or the directions to a restaurant). But according to the latest research memories are not stored in the hippocampus or, for that matter, in any other single site in the brain. Instead, they are stored throughout the brain.
It is normal, as we grow older, to have more difficulty recalling names or choosing the right word, experts tell us. But such garden-variety forgetfulness — formally called "normal age-related forgetfulness" (NARF) or more popularly “senior moments” — must be clearly distinguished from Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. The normal forgetfulness of older age may be frustrating, but it is not disabling like dementia. And you should know the difference.
Here are some examples of the differences between normal age-related forgetfulness and dementia: (courtesy 2008 Johns Hopkins White Paper about memory):
• A person with NARF may at times misplace keys, eyeglasses, or other items; a demented person forgets what these items are used for or puts them in inappropriate places.
• Someone with NARF may momentarily forget the name of an acquaintance; a demented individual may not remember knowing that person.
• A person with NARF may on occasion forget to run an errand; persons with dementia, because they do not know what day or time it is, cannot run any errands at all.
• People with NARF may joke about their forgetfulness; demented people are unaware of their memory loss.
• While driving, a person with NARF may briefly forget when to make a turn; a demented individual can easily get lost even in a familiar place.
A common guideline is that people who worry about their forgetfulness are unlikely to be suffering from a serious memory abnormality. People with a serious impairment of memory tend to be unaware of their memory problems, don't worry about them, or else blame other factors when memory lapses are brought to their attention.
In short, you need not worry if you forget where you put your car keys; you only need to worry if you forget what they’re used for. If you worry about losing your mind, you probably still have it!
There are others which cause more distress- like the time you were searching for your house key in Delhi when it was in Washington, or going through red lights because they looked green, or when it was easier to say “that thing” than recall a proper noun. All these senior moments creep up on you from the time you are say 50 but they become causes of concern only when your children are around you saying “Dad” or “Mom” in embarrassed tones or muttering Alzheimer’s under their breaths!
One explanation of these senior moments is the simple fact that our brains are overloaded after 50 or 60 years of input. Our brains bloat as the result of too much stuff in the head and so the forgetful symptoms begin manifesting. After all those years of cramming stuff into your head, it finally begins overflowing like a water glass unable to hold another drop without shedding something already there.
So the solution, this expert suggests, is to empty out what is already there to make enough room for more in your brain. Those dates you memorized in high school history class? They are still there, aren't they? Get rid of them. And all those kings and queens and wars aplenty. Forget them. Just think of the valuable space you will empty up. And those thousands of names back in there of folks you'll probably never even see again? There are probably hundreds of school chums alone stuck in the recesses of your head. Get rid of them. Don't worry. If they happen to be at your next high school reunion, they'll be wearing nametags. You won’t miss a thing or a name. But what we really need is a three monthly clean up system – like changing oil in a car- just dump all the irrelevant stuff out of your brain on a regular basis. You can then really enjoy the feeling of a full and often useful brain.
But seriously research now shows how you can avoid these senior moments. Besides the usual admonitions of walking for an hour, sleeping for eight, and keeping an active social life, experts advise that you need to avoid depression. Depression, they say, saturates our bodies with high levels of the stress hormone, cortisol, which can damage regions of the brain crucial to memory. A new study in Neuro-Image shows that when people brainstorm without editing their ideas, more blood flows to a memory-processing area of the brain. Growing evidence also shows that people who drink moderately are at lower risk for cognitive decline and dementia. Wines in particular seem to help with the memory. Crosswords are another excellent form of mental gymnastics, provided that you can (a) find where you last put down your glasses,(b) find the newspaper and (c) complete the crossword. Studies have shown that people who do crossword puzzles four days per week have a 48 per cent lower risk of developing dementia than those who did no crosswords at all. And best of all, eat dark chocolate- people who down a cocoa drink have a 50 percent increase in the blood streaming into memory centers of the brain.
And most importantly do not confuse these senior moments with the dreaded onset of Alzheimer's disease. It is true that Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia, affects 5.2 million Americans and is the sixth leading cause of death in the United States. But it is a long way from a senior moment to loss of memory or dementia .
Shakespeare called memory “the warder of the brain,” charged with keeping watch over an individual’s personal account of being. Today scientists describe four memory systems that process incoming information for storage and retrieval. The systems are episodic, semantic, procedural, and working. The episodic memory system is involved in remembering personal experiences, such as a phone conversation you had yesterday or the movie you watched last week. The semantic memory system manages the storage and retrieval of general knowledge and facts, such as the number of days in a year or the colors in a rainbow. The procedural memory system allows us to learn activities and skills that will then be performed automatically with little or no conscious thought. Examples are riding a bicycle or driving a car. The working memory system governs our ability to pay attention and concentrate, and it enables us to temporarily keep needed information in mind (such as a phone number or the directions to a restaurant). But according to the latest research memories are not stored in the hippocampus or, for that matter, in any other single site in the brain. Instead, they are stored throughout the brain.
It is normal, as we grow older, to have more difficulty recalling names or choosing the right word, experts tell us. But such garden-variety forgetfulness — formally called "normal age-related forgetfulness" (NARF) or more popularly “senior moments” — must be clearly distinguished from Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. The normal forgetfulness of older age may be frustrating, but it is not disabling like dementia. And you should know the difference.
Here are some examples of the differences between normal age-related forgetfulness and dementia: (courtesy 2008 Johns Hopkins White Paper about memory):
• A person with NARF may at times misplace keys, eyeglasses, or other items; a demented person forgets what these items are used for or puts them in inappropriate places.
• Someone with NARF may momentarily forget the name of an acquaintance; a demented individual may not remember knowing that person.
• A person with NARF may on occasion forget to run an errand; persons with dementia, because they do not know what day or time it is, cannot run any errands at all.
• People with NARF may joke about their forgetfulness; demented people are unaware of their memory loss.
• While driving, a person with NARF may briefly forget when to make a turn; a demented individual can easily get lost even in a familiar place.
A common guideline is that people who worry about their forgetfulness are unlikely to be suffering from a serious memory abnormality. People with a serious impairment of memory tend to be unaware of their memory problems, don't worry about them, or else blame other factors when memory lapses are brought to their attention.
In short, you need not worry if you forget where you put your car keys; you only need to worry if you forget what they’re used for. If you worry about losing your mind, you probably still have it!
Friday, July 3, 2009
The Last Lecture
Randy Pausch was a professor of computer science at Carnegi- Mellon when, in September, 2007, he was invited to speak as part of the university’s lectures titled Journeys – lectures in which members of the community shared their reflections and insights on their personal and professional journeys. The objective of the series was "if you had one last lecture to give before you died,what would it be". Except in this case, it really was his last lecture. Randy had been diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer and was given but 3-6 months to live.
His courageous and inspiring lecture was soon on the internet where it became an instant hit with millions of people tuning in. Here is the video and the transcript and you judge for yourself.
He spoke of his life and what he had learnt and some of his quotes below give you a sense of the man:
“ We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand.
...Have something to bring to the table, because that will make you more welcome.
...I probably got more from that dream and not accomplishing it than I got from any of the ones that I did accomplish.
...You’ve got to get the fundamentals down because otherwise the fancy stuff isn’t going to work.
...When you see yourself doing something badly and nobody’s bothering to tell you anymore, that’s a very bad place to be. Your critics are your ones telling you they still love you and care.
...Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted.
...Head fake learning is absolutely important, and you should keep your eye out for them because they’re everywhere.
...The brick walls are not there to keep us out. The brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. Because the brick walls are there to stop the people who don’t want it badly enough.
...It’s pretty easy to be smart when you’re parroting smart people.
...It’s very important to know when you’re in a pissing match. And it’s very important to get out of it as quickly as possible.
...Until you got ice cream spilled on you, you’re not doing field work.
...I can’t tell you beforehand, but right before they present it I can tell you if the world (his students project work) is good by the body language. If they’re standing close to each other, the world is good.
...If you’re going to do anything that pioneering you will get those arrows in the back, and you just have to put up with it. I mean everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
...Somewhere along the way there’s got to be some aspect of what lets you get to achieve your dreams. First one is the role of parents, mentors, and students.
And he (Andy Van Dam) said, Randy, it’s such a shame that people perceive you as so arrogant. Because it’s going to limit what you’re going to be able to accomplish in life.
...You just have to decide if you’re a Tigger or an Eeyore.
...I have a theory that people who come from large families are better people because they’ve just had to learn to get along.
...Loyalty is a two way street.
...Syl said, it took me a long time but I’ve finally figured it out. When it comes to men that are romantically interested in you, it’s really simple. Just ignore everything they say and only pay attention to what they do. It’s that simple. It’s that easy.
...You can’t get there alone. People have to help you and I do believe in karma. I believe in paybacks. You get people to help you by telling the truth. Being earnest.
I’ll take an earnest person over a hip person every day, because hip is short term. Earnest is long term.
...Apologise when you screw up and focus on other people, not on yourself.
...Don’t bail. The best of the gold’s at the bottom of barrels of crap.
...Get a feedback loop and listen to it. Your feedback loop can be this dorky spreadsheet thing I did, or it can just be one great man who tells you what you need to hear. The hard part is the listening to it.
...Don’t complain. Just work harder. That’s a picture of Jackie Robinson. It was in his contract not to complain, even when the fans spit on him.
...Be good at something, it makes you valuable.
...Find the best in everybody. Just keep waiting no matter how long it takes. No one is all evil. Everybody has a good side, just keep waiting, it will come out.
...Be prepared. Luck is truly where preparation meets opportunity.
It’s not about how to achieve your dreams. It’s about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you.”
And he said that his last lecture was really for his three kids. Randy Pausch died on July 25, 2008.
His courageous and inspiring lecture was soon on the internet where it became an instant hit with millions of people tuning in. Here is the video and the transcript and you judge for yourself.
He spoke of his life and what he had learnt and some of his quotes below give you a sense of the man:
“ We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand.
...Have something to bring to the table, because that will make you more welcome.
...I probably got more from that dream and not accomplishing it than I got from any of the ones that I did accomplish.
...You’ve got to get the fundamentals down because otherwise the fancy stuff isn’t going to work.
...When you see yourself doing something badly and nobody’s bothering to tell you anymore, that’s a very bad place to be. Your critics are your ones telling you they still love you and care.
...Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted.
...Head fake learning is absolutely important, and you should keep your eye out for them because they’re everywhere.
...The brick walls are not there to keep us out. The brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. Because the brick walls are there to stop the people who don’t want it badly enough.
...It’s pretty easy to be smart when you’re parroting smart people.
...It’s very important to know when you’re in a pissing match. And it’s very important to get out of it as quickly as possible.
...Until you got ice cream spilled on you, you’re not doing field work.
...I can’t tell you beforehand, but right before they present it I can tell you if the world (his students project work) is good by the body language. If they’re standing close to each other, the world is good.
...If you’re going to do anything that pioneering you will get those arrows in the back, and you just have to put up with it. I mean everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
...Somewhere along the way there’s got to be some aspect of what lets you get to achieve your dreams. First one is the role of parents, mentors, and students.
And he (Andy Van Dam) said, Randy, it’s such a shame that people perceive you as so arrogant. Because it’s going to limit what you’re going to be able to accomplish in life.
...You just have to decide if you’re a Tigger or an Eeyore.
...I have a theory that people who come from large families are better people because they’ve just had to learn to get along.
...Loyalty is a two way street.
...Syl said, it took me a long time but I’ve finally figured it out. When it comes to men that are romantically interested in you, it’s really simple. Just ignore everything they say and only pay attention to what they do. It’s that simple. It’s that easy.
...You can’t get there alone. People have to help you and I do believe in karma. I believe in paybacks. You get people to help you by telling the truth. Being earnest.
I’ll take an earnest person over a hip person every day, because hip is short term. Earnest is long term.
...Apologise when you screw up and focus on other people, not on yourself.
...Don’t bail. The best of the gold’s at the bottom of barrels of crap.
...Get a feedback loop and listen to it. Your feedback loop can be this dorky spreadsheet thing I did, or it can just be one great man who tells you what you need to hear. The hard part is the listening to it.
...Don’t complain. Just work harder. That’s a picture of Jackie Robinson. It was in his contract not to complain, even when the fans spit on him.
...Be good at something, it makes you valuable.
...Find the best in everybody. Just keep waiting no matter how long it takes. No one is all evil. Everybody has a good side, just keep waiting, it will come out.
...Be prepared. Luck is truly where preparation meets opportunity.
It’s not about how to achieve your dreams. It’s about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you.”
And he said that his last lecture was really for his three kids. Randy Pausch died on July 25, 2008.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Governance- individuals or institutions?
There have always been two views about how to bring about change. One talks about how all good institutions are but “lengthened shadows of an individual", while the other argues that any sustainable reform effort will need to get into the nuts and bolts of management. Over the course of the last fifty years, I have seen both alternatives play out and evidence seems to favor the individual theory of greatness at least in the short term. The major successful reform efforts of the public sector in
Today the argument is once again reverting to the past. As economist Atul Shah argues “discussions about governance in
The basic question still remains – how should we make say a public utility like drinking water in
But how does this happen in advanced economies? The typical small town in an OECD country—and in many developing countries—has 24x7 supply of clean drinking water in the taps. This isn’t done by having a miraculously effective appointments process. There is a fairly humdrum process of recruiting fairly ordinary bureaucrats into water utilities, or contracting out to private utility companies, and the job gets done. In OECD countries, 24x7 clean drinking water in the taps is not exotic rocket science. It happens all the time, because the deeper institutions are structured correctly. This is clearly the scalable path. Of course, the basic assumption is that these institutions have been set up and structured for performance and public service which at least in the developing countries is not always the case. It is true that a few good successes in the appointments process might achieve 24x7 drinking water in a few towns. But the real problem lies in trying to find a solution that creates institutional mechanisms that can be rolled out all across the country, which will deliver 24x7 clean drinking water in all the towns.
Institutional change is hard, and all too often there is a temptation to paper over a dysfunctional institutional mechanism by demanding top quality leadership, which will produce good outcomes despite bad institutions. A good judge will overcome all problems in the legal system, work hard, process a large number of cases per month and deliver good judgments against the odds. A good doctor will rise above the terrible problems of a government hospital and heal patients all the same. These individuals are revered, and rightly so. Each good judge and each good doctor deserves the gratitude of society for being useful against all odds. But these are drops in the ocean. Good governments are not built out of good individuals. They are built out of good laws and good incentive structures. What we need today is the leadership that will change laws and incentives so that we achieve good institutional arrangements.
A useful analogy is TN Seshan’s role in building the election commission, which is now one of
So do we hire great men or do we build great institutional arrangements?
The answer is that we should hire the great men who will do institutional reform—the institution builders. As long as we are a third world country struggling to get ahead, we will remain vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the appointments process. But the recruiters should not look for the right person to man the system. His job should be to fix it. The interesting candidate is not someone who knows how to deliver on a critical project. He is someone who knows how to build up an institution that will remain long after he is gone.
It’s a dog’s life….
Pets outnumber people in the United States by about 60 million, with furry, feathered and scaly inhabitants numbering about 360 million, according to the pet industry. Of these there are a total of 94 million cats and 78 million dogs. Last year, it is estimated that about $42 billion was spent on all pets in the U.S including $ 17 billion for food, $ 10 billion for medicines, $ 12 billion for vet care, and $ 3 billion for grooming and boarding. This figure is larger than the total GDP of over 114 countries in the world. It is equal to the GDP of Sudan and higher than the GDP of Equador.
On average, an owner of a pet in the US spends between $ 1000 to 1500 per year on their pets. (see table).
How did it all start?
Humans kept pets as long as 4,000 years before livestock was domesticated. There are dog burials in present day Israel and Jordan that date back to about 14,000 years ago. It seems that dogs were the earliest animal domesticated, probably drawn as wolves to human encampments. Burial evidence of cats as pets dates back 8,300 years, roughly 4,000 years before the ancient Egyptians started depicting cats on tomb walls.
Humans have had a mutually beneficial relationship with these earliest pets. Dogs, whose diet overlaps that of humans, provided their early masters with companionship, warning and possibly hunting assistance. Cats aided ancient farmers by eliminating rodents that threatened grain harvests. But as humans domesticated cats and dogs, they selected traits that over time favored lack of aggression. These docile traits in turn led to a number of evolutional, physical changes in dogs. Things like lop ears and piebald (spotted) coats are things you see in domesticated animals that you don't see in wild animals. But another factor that comes in with selection for lack of aggression is greater playfulness, more sort of puppy or juvenile type behaviors. The most striking is a change in the configuration in the skull and a reduction in the cranial capacity, which implies that dogs become less intelligent as they became more domesticated. Thousands of years later, humans are still looking for these baby-like qualities in dogs, but for different reasons.
Matthew Margolis, a professional dog behavior therapist and animal aggression expert from California, asks his clients why some of them get dogs, especially little dogs. Their response, he says, is, "Well, my children have gone from the home. I'm lonely. I want something to love." The response from young people without families often is that they want a puppy to raise before raising a child—kind of practice before starting out on the real thing!
Despite all this love, there are still almost 5 million dog bites reported each year. And this in turn has given birth to a completely new industry- pet disputes. There are now almost $400 million in legal claims, according to Margolis, who often testifies in pet-dispute court cases.
"Cats and dogs used to eat leftovers from humans, which isn't necessarily bad. But every species of animal has its own nutritional needs," Beaver said. "When you think of a cat you think of them eating a mouse," she said, explaining that a leftover piece of muscle meat does not have the same nutritional value as a mouse, whose body also offered bone and digested vegetables.
Since pets satisfy modern man's emotional needs and so the health of animals has reaped the benefits of human technological advances witness the high quality of pet food, vaccines, chemotherapy and surgical techniques for extending the life of pets. Thirty years ago in the U.S., the average age of a dog was 4 years; the average age of a cat was 3 years. These days the average lifespan of a dog is between eight and 12 years.
Pet owners' spending is not limited to the basics. The APPMA found in its National Pet Owners Survey that 27 percent of dog owners and 13 percent of cat owners buy their pets birthday presents, and 55 percent of dog owners and 37 percent of cat owners buy their pet holiday presents. But as one doting owner confesses "I don't think I've ever bought my dog a gift where he's turned around and said, 'Oh thanks, anyway,' "
Why do humans dote on pets to the tune of billions of dollars a year? Pet owners report it's because of the bond with their animals, which they may refer to as their best friend, a companion or a member of their family.
"Animals give you unconditional, unrestricted love”. And babies don’t?
On average, an owner of a pet in the US spends between $ 1000 to 1500 per year on their pets. (see table).
Annual average cost in $ Dogs Cats
1. Surgical Vet Visits 453 363
2. Food 217 188
3. Kennel Boarding 225 149
4. Routine Vet 219 175
5. Groomer/Grooming Aids 127 18
6. Vitamins 77 31
7. Treats 66 40
8. Toys 41 26
Total 1425 990
How did it all start?
Humans kept pets as long as 4,000 years before livestock was domesticated. There are dog burials in present day Israel and Jordan that date back to about 14,000 years ago. It seems that dogs were the earliest animal domesticated, probably drawn as wolves to human encampments. Burial evidence of cats as pets dates back 8,300 years, roughly 4,000 years before the ancient Egyptians started depicting cats on tomb walls.
Humans have had a mutually beneficial relationship with these earliest pets. Dogs, whose diet overlaps that of humans, provided their early masters with companionship, warning and possibly hunting assistance. Cats aided ancient farmers by eliminating rodents that threatened grain harvests. But as humans domesticated cats and dogs, they selected traits that over time favored lack of aggression. These docile traits in turn led to a number of evolutional, physical changes in dogs. Things like lop ears and piebald (spotted) coats are things you see in domesticated animals that you don't see in wild animals. But another factor that comes in with selection for lack of aggression is greater playfulness, more sort of puppy or juvenile type behaviors. The most striking is a change in the configuration in the skull and a reduction in the cranial capacity, which implies that dogs become less intelligent as they became more domesticated. Thousands of years later, humans are still looking for these baby-like qualities in dogs, but for different reasons.
Matthew Margolis, a professional dog behavior therapist and animal aggression expert from California, asks his clients why some of them get dogs, especially little dogs. Their response, he says, is, "Well, my children have gone from the home. I'm lonely. I want something to love." The response from young people without families often is that they want a puppy to raise before raising a child—kind of practice before starting out on the real thing!
Despite all this love, there are still almost 5 million dog bites reported each year. And this in turn has given birth to a completely new industry- pet disputes. There are now almost $400 million in legal claims, according to Margolis, who often testifies in pet-dispute court cases.
"Cats and dogs used to eat leftovers from humans, which isn't necessarily bad. But every species of animal has its own nutritional needs," Beaver said. "When you think of a cat you think of them eating a mouse," she said, explaining that a leftover piece of muscle meat does not have the same nutritional value as a mouse, whose body also offered bone and digested vegetables.
Since pets satisfy modern man's emotional needs and so the health of animals has reaped the benefits of human technological advances witness the high quality of pet food, vaccines, chemotherapy and surgical techniques for extending the life of pets. Thirty years ago in the U.S., the average age of a dog was 4 years; the average age of a cat was 3 years. These days the average lifespan of a dog is between eight and 12 years.
Pet owners' spending is not limited to the basics. The APPMA found in its National Pet Owners Survey that 27 percent of dog owners and 13 percent of cat owners buy their pets birthday presents, and 55 percent of dog owners and 37 percent of cat owners buy their pet holiday presents. But as one doting owner confesses "I don't think I've ever bought my dog a gift where he's turned around and said, 'Oh thanks, anyway,' "
Why do humans dote on pets to the tune of billions of dollars a year? Pet owners report it's because of the bond with their animals, which they may refer to as their best friend, a companion or a member of their family.
"Animals give you unconditional, unrestricted love”. And babies don’t?
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