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Thursday, February 20, 2014

Birth of offshore in India - part 1

I recently received an email from the Chairman of Engineers India Limited, a consulting company I had worked for in the early seventies.

"On 15th March 2014, EIL enters into the 50th year of its glorious existence.  These 50 years have seen EIL scale new peaks, achieve many firsts and become an integral part of the growth story of the Indian Hydrocarbon industry.  It has been a remarkable journey and we wish to capture all the magnificent and wonderful moments in an EIL Book that we wish to launch on this occasion.You have been an integral part of the EIL growth story and we feel grateful to you for laying a strong foundation on which we continue to grow.  We would be privileged if you could share with us your special memories, anecdotes and photographs of yesteryears for inclusion in this book."

I was delighted that my old organization had remembered me and sent them my recollections of those years- " The offshore story- the beginnings" and " Mastering Offshore technology in India". For those wanting to delve deeper into these areas, there is also a book -"Pioneers of offshore technology in India" availble from Lulu.com.

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India’s Offshore story- the beginnings

“We are a nation of beggars and we shall remain a nation of beggars. We will never be able to do
anything so complicated ourselves. Don’t waste your life here. Go back to America.” Those words, from the then chairman of India’s national oil company, Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC), on my proposal to create an indigenous capability in offshore industry, would change my life. And they were also the sparks that led to the creation of offshore technology capability in India.

It was 1970. I had come back after three years in the US. I returned to an India full of hope and excitement. Indira Gandhi had just vanquished the old guard of politicians and was now a prime minister in her own right. She brought a fresh air of optimism and a promise of a new era in the country’s future. The environment was reminiscent of the time when John Kennedy had taken over as the US president, some ten years before. She promised to eradicate poverty– indeed “Garibi Hatao”or “ remove poverty” was to become her election slogan- and was attracting theyoung and even older hardened professionals to hercause and to public service.

I had just completed a doctorate at the University of California, Berkeley in the esoteric area of “StochasticAnalysis of Offshore Structures.” My doctoral research was financed by Chevron and was considered pioneering work on the design of offshore platforms in deepwater. I had returned to India while trying to decide between accepting a job with an international oil company in the U.S. and rejoining the Indian civil service in the railways. While in Delhi, I read about India’s plans to start oil exploration work offshore of Bombay, and how the government was considering buying an offshore rig. Of course, since this was the first time that the national oil company, ONGC, would venture offshore, they had little or no indigenous capability.

 I had mentioned my area of expertise at some party –where, I do not now recall- but two weeks later, Lavraj Kumar summoned me to the Ministry of Petroleum. Lavraj Kumar had spent his career in Burmah Shell, but had recently moved over to the public sector and was then an adviser in the ministry of petroleum. He was to play a key role in fostering the public sectorafter his career in the private sector, and was later fondly recalled by his admirers as the “father of the Indian petrochemical industry.” I entered his chamber in Shastri Bhavan to find a gray haired, handsomeman who talked and chain smoked the entire time. Once he learnt of my background, he promptlyphoned Manmohan Pathak, the managing director of Engineers India Limited (EIL), the engineering company under the ministry, and told him that he needed to hire me straightaway. Manmohan, a MIT graduate, had just taken over as the first Indian managing director of Engineers India Limited in 1969 – a joint venture initiated by Bechtel, which planned to build a number of fertilizer plants, and had created this engineering company to prepare the drawings. It was a small company, perhaps 150 professionals, but Manmohan was full of ideas to make it the largest engineering and Process Company in south Asia. Manmohan was the central casting idea of a chief executive – tall, fair and handsome with
an engaging smile, and full of enthusiasm. He had developed a corporate plan for EIL that envisaged
expanding into a new area of technology every other year. And he wanted EIL to be a company that would provide service for any kind of process plant from concept to commissioning. Most importantly, though in his early forties, he was still full of idealism, andwilling to take risks. Over the next five years, I was to find out that he always stood by his word.

After hearing my plans to build an offshore engineering capability in India, he suggested that perhaps I could join EIL and build this capability by also bringing back other Indians around the world
that had some experience in offshore work. He promised to provide all support. He offered me three
times the salary of my civil service job, which, in 1970, was a princely Rs 400 or about US $40 per month.

Still smarting from my meeting with Johnson, I was willing to throw in my lot with him, but made two stipulations: one, I would report only to him since there was nobody else in the company who had any idea of the technology; and two, if I did not succeed in building a capability within two years, he would let me resign and leave the company.

 I soon found out that there were no more than six or seven Indians in the world at that time that were
working at senior levels in the offshore industry. During the next few years, I met up with all of them
to try and coax them to come back to India, even offering some my own job as the leader of the team.
But most of them were married, and hesitated to take a chance in a completely new environment. There were some – one, a soil engineer full of idealism, who returned but could not persuade his wife to live inIndia, and so went back after a short stay; another whose wife was able to nag him to return after I offered him a job, but he, too, found it difficult to stay in the political and hostile climate of the Indian public sector and moved onto other international companies, making a very successful career outside the country.The first recruit for the Offshore Engineering Department (OED) was Anil Lyall.

When he walked into my hotel room in Washington, I looked up to find a hippie with shoulder length hair, glaring at me through his glasses. 

“I want to go back to India and will work at anything that is required,” was his opening statement. Anil never asked about salaryor job title, his only desire was that his capabilities as a geological oceanographer be utilized. I explained what I was trying to do and that I was looking for people
with experience in the offshore oil industry, but if he was willing to return, I had an opening. I offered
him a job, fully expecting that he would not return. Imagine my surprise then, when a few months later, my secretary burst into my office in Delhi, desperately trying to mask a smile, to say that a young man with wild hair was outside saying that he was to work forme. Anil was outside, his long hair still very much there, but he was still full of passion and vigor. He became an invaluable part of the OED team and was to spend the rest of his professional life in EIL, retiring only in 2003.

My early years in OED were spent researching and writing about the oil industry in India. Despite the
fact that ONGC had made an oil discovery with Russian help in 1959, there was surprisingly little
written or known about the industry. And even less about the offshore oil exploration effort that ONGC now wanted to embark upon in the face of nervous bureaucrats in the ministry. I began writing articles in various newspapers on what needed to be done to build an offshore industry from scratch in the country. One was cheekily titled “Let’s churn the oceans.” …

We had continued to build our capability in offshore technology and our first breakthrough came when Indian Oil Corporation decided to build an offshore oil terminal at Salaya, on the west coast of India. This would be the first major offshore installation in the country for the import of oil, and I was
determined that OED should participate in its design and installation. In a meeting in the Planning
Commission, its managing director, C.R Dasgupta, proposed building the Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) terminal. I raised an objection stating that other alternatives – and I reeled out at least six other kinds of terminals --needed to be considered as well as plans made for appropriate transfer of technology to India before a decision could be made. Over Dasgupta’s objections, the planning minister entrusted EIL with evaluating the various options prior to a decision being made. 

We decided to bring in an international engineering company as a ‘back up consultant” to work with us. From that concept report grew the idea that OED should act as the consultants to IOC in the selection, design, fabrication and installation of the system, and thereby also ensure that the closely held technology in this area could be transferred to India. This was to be ourfirst major offshore job and I could now go out and hire additional staff. It was during this period that we bought equipment to create our own offshore field survey team under Anil Lyall, the wild-eyed hippie, hired Saeed Khan, a senior pipeline engineer working with a US company in Holland to oversee the
pipeline unit, and recruited structural engineers to start writing programs for design of offshore pipeline systems.

Soon our team was busy in carrying out surveys in theoffshore areas and in the design of the pipeline. The SBM was fabricated in Malta and our team was asked to supervise its fabrication and ensure its quality. NKK, a Japanese company, was responsible for the installation of the pipeline and the SBM system, but soon ran into problems due to the adverse weather conditions in the Gulf of Kutch. We were able to persuade them to bring in a more sophisticated installation vessel to complete the job. The offshore oil terminal was completed in time and we believed that we had made a breakthrough, and with that, other jobs would soon follow. Months of frustration followed as our main potential client, ONGC was unwilling to make any long-term commitments and indeed, wanted to develop this capability in house.

It was my belief that an important component in the success in the oil sector had to be the development of indigenous technological capability, preferably in a consulting company. .(But) I had to convince the government and ONGC of the merits of creating OEDin EIL as the engineering company for the country.

Even as we were making these arguments with thesenior management of ONGC and the government,
a minor incident occurred that could have easily sunk the OED before it had fully taken off. The
ONGC offshore jack up unit, Sagar Samrat, which was delivered in 1973, was to jack up at a location in offshore Bombay. To determine whether it was safe to do so, ONGC had appointed a French soil consulting company, TLM, to calculate the penetration that Sagar Samrat would have in the seabed. EIL had subcontracted with TLM to assist them in this projectand to learn in the process. This was one of our firstassignments with ONGC. TLM was using a measuring tool of their own-patented design and after field tests, had certified that the spot chosen by ONGC was safe.

But when Sagar Samrat started lowering its legs at that location, the penetration was considerably greater than what was predicted. ONGC staff, who had never really liked the idea of EIL meddling in their affairs, let out a howl saying, “We told you so, that EIL does not have the competence in offshore area and should be kept out.”

 I was then in Boston, finishing up my management program at Harvard Business School when I received a terse wire from Manmohan Pathak ordering me to return immediately. I returned in the midst of this furor and argued that the work done by TLM and EIL was only their subcontractor and if ONGC had any beef regarding technical competence, it should be with TLM and not EIL. Fortunately, Sagar Samrat had been moved a few thousand meters away and jacked up successfully by then and the furor died down. And when a few months later, the first exploration well turned out to be a discovery, perhaps the shift in location was a heaven sent gift, for this well led to the beginning of the Bombay High discovery and to the development of the OED team in EIL.

With the Sagar Samrat crisis behind us and the discovery of oil in Bombay High auguring well for a bright future for offshore oil production in India, I realized that we needed to build a strong,
interdisciplinary professional team in EIL for the challenges ahead. In building this capability, it was
clear to me that I needed to locate and bring to EIL the best Indian talent I could find from around the world, to form the core team around which the capability could be built. In all my journeys, I was therefore continually in search of Indians who had worked in the offshore area and had acquired experience and a reputation for brilliance. Another source of talent spotters were the professors at my old US universities, whom I had asked to keep a lookout for outstanding students. Professor Chopra at the University of California wrote to me of an outstanding student of his—Partho Chatterjee—who was just completing his doctorate and was keen to return to India. I interviewed the shy and gentle Partho and was impressed by his depth of knowledge, and recruited him to help strengthen our structural engineering department. Talent also came to us from within the company—there was Sushil Mathur, a piping expert, who was ambitious and enthusiastic, then Hari Kaul, a quiet, more down to earth electrical engineer, and Cheema, who was a port engineer, Dr Utpal Dutta, a process engineer who went on to become managing director of another private consulting company, and
others. What all of them had in common was their willingness to work hard, go fearlessly into new
areas and an innate brilliance that soon helped form a core team of impressive quality that could match any international team that came to work with us.

Our team soon had expertise in the entire gamut of technology required to work offshore; we had
physical and geological oceanographers, structural and pipeline engineers, process designers, electrical, mechanical and instrumentation engineers.

The main effort now was to quickly integrate them into a team, expose them to the best international
talent and to build a professional capability for all offshore work- from oceanographic and soil
investigations to the design of offshore pipelines and platforms. With the successful completion of the
offshore oil terminal, we had shown that offshore technology was no ‘black box’ accessible only to the international oil companies, but one that we could obtain and master. We had made a beginning. And in the next few years, I was determined that we would build a team in EIL that would master offshore oil technology and become the chief designer of all offshore installations in the country.



Saturday, February 15, 2014

Remnicing


Last week I was invited to a meeting that was reviewing some projects I had worked on about 15 years ago. The bank had selected two countries- Bangladesh and Vietnam- where rural electrification had been a success and wanted to learn the lessons contributing to their success. It is always nice to have ones work so acknowledged and so I decided to go to the meeting.

But since memory pales, I sent the members a brief account of this work as I remembered it....



Rural electrification of Vietnam was not part of my plan when I started working in that country. It was one of those chance issues that creep into one’s life unbeknown and unsought, but soon take over one’s total life’s concentration. So it was with projects that would provide power to the rural people of Vietnam. Little did I realize when I accepted the challenge that it would turn out to be one of the most satisfying aspects of my stay in Vietnam. And it had all come by happenstance.

A new World Bank country director, Andrew Steer, young and ambitious, had just taken over in 1997 and he had set about expanding the office with a vengeance, just as the Bank moved to implement its new decentralization policies. This move of senior staff to the country offices and the transfer of responsibility to the country directors were to see one of its earliest tussles in Vietnam and that in the energy sector. Our energy department was planning to finance a hydropower plant, but Steer’s background was in the environmental department and he was adamantly opposed to it. In a tense confrontation with the energy director, he refused to provide financial support for energy staff to proceed further. He argued that I had persuaded the Japanese aid agency to step in with the necessary funds for the hydropower plant and that the Bank funds could be better used on other projects for the alleviation of poverty, like rural electrification.

Steer then asked me if I would design and implement a rural electrification project. I had never worked on problems of rural electrification, but reluctantly agreed to lead the effort since I was in the field hoping that I could persuade someone from Washington with much greater knowledge in the area to help me, if not to lead, the effort. To my surprise, I found that the Bank had little expertise left in this area over the years as most staff had retired and their replacements had focused on the sexier areas of privatization and reform. Unfortunately, I was by then persona non grata with our energy department back in Washington as the blame for the loss of this hydropower project was laid squarely at my door, although it was the country director who made these decisions and not me. So even the modicum of technical assistance that one might expect was not readily forthcoming. I was left to my own devices. It was generally expected that this rural electrification project would die on the vine. But I was determined to learn all I could about rural electrification, and I delved enthusiastically into all old Bank studies and projects. Among the first ones I studied was a project in the Philippines where the Bank had been a presence for the past two decades.

The Philippines had over 132 rural electricity cooperatives of which less than 15% operated efficiently or even broke even. On a proposed mission to develop a rural electrification policy paper, we planned to visit some of the weak cooperatives as well as those that had sustained a profitable operation over a number of years. We learned of three cooperatives on the island of Cebu, which had demonstrated superior performance over a number of years. Our mission flew down from Manila to Cebu to visit the general manager of these cooperatives. As our team entered the conference room of Francisco Silva, the general manager of the three cooperatives in Cebu, we were surrounded and serenaded by staff wearing colorful costumes. We introduced ourselves and explained the objectives of our visit. Fr. Silva held up his hand and directed his staff to sing another song for us. After the song was over, we told him that we were really keen to understand how he had been able to maintain an extremely efficient operation in the rural electricity cooperatives that he managed. Once again, instead of answering our question, he urged his staff to sing a rendition of Louis Armstrong’s “What a Wonderful Day”! By now, our team was a trifle bemused. Seeing that we were getting a bit restive, he turned and explained that only the previous month he had hosted a team from the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) who had asked him exactly the same question. He told us what he had told them.

“Look, I have no management degrees or training and so cannot tell you what my techniques are. But you are welcome to send a team to stay with me and observe directly.”

 So AIM sent a team to Cebu to do a case study. They stayed for a few weeks with his rural cooperative, observing his methods of management. But at the end of their visit, they came to him and said,” Father Silva, we cannot write a case study because you seem to be doing everything contrary to normal management techniques!”

But we persisted in our question, “You run a very successful rural electricity cooperative (REC) so what did the AIM team miss in their evaluation?”

His reply was interesting. He said, “The AIM team did not understand that successful management must be rooted in the culture of the country.”

Asked to explain what that meant in concrete terms, he replied, “Look, when you walked in, my staff sang a few songs and you were all a little confused. But you need to realize that people in the Philippines love to sing and that it is deeply embedded in their culture.”

“So?” we asked in confusion. “What has that got do with management?”

“Everything,” he replied. “A few years ago, the RECs under my charge had very high losses. So I announced that if the staffs of the REC that could not reduce their losses from 20% to 10% would not be allowed to sing in the annual competition! The results: one of the REC brought down losses to 10% within six months. The others did not and so were not allowed to participate in the singing competition the next year. As a result, now all the RECs have losses within acceptable limits. ”

Until recently, Father Silva’s cooperative staff had to chase after the rural households to collect the bills, but he had changed that by announcing that the cooperative would sit for two days in every village for the collections. If the households did not pay, they would have to travel ten miles to the nearest town office to pay and if the payments were still not received, their electricity would be cut off. Now, when the day approached for the payment of electricity bills, all the households in the village went to each other to ensure that they all had the necessary funds or to borrow them if they did not. His cooperative had a collection efficiency of over 90% and so clearly the approach had paid off. “But,” he said, “underlying all this is an understanding of local culture and norms.”

I remembered this lesson from Father Silva and was determined that before we designed the project in Vietnam, our team would visit the villages firsthand to learn from them. That year, we laid out an aggressive program of field visits – every week we would visit a different commune in a different province. During the next year, we visited 30 provinces and over 100 communes, talking to rural households and commune leaders as well as the provincial leadership. We wanted to know what they were willing to pay, what they would use the electricity for, how they wanted the cooperative to be managed etc. These visits became the highlight of my stay in Vietnam. I visited areas that most expatriates had not even heard of and began to learn of the real Vietnam in the rural areas.

These visits became a voyage of discovery. Each commune we traveled to had a different story to tell and a different lesson to teach us. But as we visited these communes – from Vietnam’s northern borders to the southern mangrove swamps, from the fishing communities in the east to the poorest Hmong communes in the central highlands- one thing remained common. The commune office where we were received was almost always a brick room, with either a bust of Ho Chi Minh or a large painting of him. There would be a few cupboards in the room with a few circulars and books. Some of the wealthier communes also had a TV set that was used for the village meetings in the evenings. The secretary of the commune Peoples Committee invariably accompanied the head of the commune, who always came armed with a children’s exercise book in which he noted down all our questions and from which he produced the data regarding his commune.

During these visits, we were to meet some of the most interesting people in the country – a vivacious chairwoman of a PPC in the north who told me that she had shut down all the beer parlors in the cities of her province as one of her first acts to make sure that all men went home after work; another PPC chairman who wanted to make sure that all the communes in his province were electrified and that his own birthplace commune would be the last to be given power; the leader of the women’s artillery corps in the American War who had returned to fishing and whose commune the country had forgotten almost for two decades. There was also an English teacher who had never before met a foreigner and had never heard English spoken before we met him; the chief of a village who would talk only after we had shared rice wine with him from the communal gourd; Joseph, the priest who had been confined to his parish for two years but was not permitted to talk to his parishioners. And then there was the Thai general secretary of Dien Bien Phu province who cheerfully told us that he had five children and was exempt from the national laws on two children because he was from a minority community group, and who then wanted to honor me with a rice bottle laced with the bile of a live bear; the young man in Pac Bo who was so smitten with my wife, who often accompanied me in these sojourns, that he kept wanting to beat me in table tennis while Ena looked on.  And also the consternation of Ranjit Lamech from the World Bank, who wanted to set up a dual accounting system in the villages only to find that there was not even a bank in close vicinity and that all finances were kept in a steel trunk in the schoolhouse! 

In the north, we went up to the Chinese border and visited the secret hideout of Ho Chi Minh in Pac Bo. In the west, we went onto the Laotian border where the villages were reputed to be the centre of drug running from Myanmar and Thailand. In the central highlands, we visited some of the poorest villages among the Hmong and sipped wine from their communal gourds. It was to be learning experience the likes of which I had never had. While we were planning and designing the rural energy project, we were also learning real lessons from our travels. All these formed a kaleidoscope of our journeys, but they all added up to a picture of a country restless and on the move and wanting to do things

The conventional wisdom on extending electricity access to the rural areas, particularly the poorer ones, was that the biggest constraint was the high connection charges levied by the power companies. The Bank’s “best practices” paper recommends that for increasing rural access, some method needed to be found to reduce the initial connection charges for poorer customers, or there needed to be some availability of credit to spread these costs over some years. In a number of communes that we visited in Vietnam, the situation was somewhat different. Binh Phu commune in Tra Vinh province was a typical commune. It had 2927 households, 40% of these were electrified with an average consumption of only 20 – 30 kWh/month/household. From the total electricity consumption in the commune, 80% was for household uses, 15% for services and 5% for production uses. Each household paid VND 500,000 for the cost of setting up the service to the house while the monthly payments per household was about 20-25,000 VND (approximately US $1-$1.5). When asked why more households were not connecting to the existing grid, the answer was a little surprising. The villagers said that they had difficulty in paying the monthly bills with an annual income of only 2 million VND. When asked whether the high connection charges of 0.5 million VND was a major barrier, their reply was that they could afford to pay the initial connection charges. When asked for clarification, the answer came. “Oh! We can pay for the initial connection charge easily by selling a piglet. It is the monthly dues that are a problem! You city people,” he added, “don’t realize that we don’t get monthly wages in the field, but have money in our pockets only when the harvest comes in.”

The prompt collection of power bills from customers in the rural areas has always proven to be a major issue in rural electrification projects around the world. Thus, the ones that were able to successfully tackle these issues elicited particular interest. There were two cases where the managers of the rural cooperatives had solved this problem, each in his own unique way.

The Dai Hai Private Agency was an organization for rural electrification in the southern province of Soc Trang established in 1992 by Mr. Nguyen Duc Thanh, a former teacher. The Agency served about 4,400 households in five communes. The total asset of the agency were estimated VND 4 billion with electricity sales of 200,000 kWh/month. The price for electricity was VND 650 to 700/kWh for residential use where the average annual income was about 2 million dongs. For connecting to the Agency’s network, a household paid a onetime connection fee of VND 900,000 and signed a contract with the Agency, in which the tariff was specified. The Agency was fully responsible for the maintenance and repair of the network. The Agency, with 15 staff, was running like a small business enterprise and paid profit tax and VAT of 10%. One of the reasons for its success had been its ability to collect payments for all the electricity sold from all of its customers. When I enquired what the average collection ratio was, Mr. Than told me that in the initial stages, a number of customers delayed paying their bills citing their financial difficulties, but now the collections were a hundred percent. When asked how this was achieved, he said the solution was quite simple - he requested the village priest to read out the names of the defaulters after each monthly mass in the church! Fr Silva in the Philippines had followed a different road by transferring the responsibility squarely on to the consumers.

Another prevalent view in the Bank was that most villagers were too poor to pay the high power tariffs that generally needed to be levied to even recover basic operational costs. A similar issue had also been raised in the poorer villages of the Philippines. Father Silva had recounted that during his visits to these villages; he would summon the family and ask them if they wanted electricity. And the answer inevitably was yes, but that they could not afford to pay the monthly dues of about 100- 150 pesos. Whereupon he would ask the head of the household how many beers he drank in a week. The answer would come, “Oh Father! I drink only one can a day.” And each can of beer cost? About 10 pesos. “OK,” Father Silva would reply, “only drink every alternate day and put that money in an empty can every week. By the end of the month, you will have enough money for electricity for your family!”

The one problem that has dogged all efforts at rural electrification has been how to use it for productive uses. Once power came to the village and the households turned to TV programs for education and entertainment, they realized that perhaps there were other uses possible, which could bring in additional income. The productive use of electricity in the rural areas has always been hard to document. So the results of electrification of a rural area in Central Vietnam that led to a major economic improvement provided an interesting example.

Duy Son 2 in Quang Nam province had a cooperative, but had no electricity despite its proximity to the Chop Xoi Mountains and various water streams. In 1984, with the initiative of the head of the cooperative, Mr. Lui Ban, a 400 kw/hour turbine of the Duy Son 2 hydroelectric plant was finally installed in 1984. The capacity of the power plant was further increased to almost 1200 kw/hour by 1990. There were 2800 households in the cooperative and all were now electrified with an average income of 560 kilograms of rice per year. By 1995, the power plant had a turnover of over 1 billion VND per year and it supplied water to enable two to three rice crops per year. Rice production increased from 1946 tonnes in 1984 to 3560 tonnes in 1996. A garment workshop set up by the cooperative employed 250 female workers coming from the adjacent farming families working in two shifts a day. Some of their products were now exported to neighboring East Asian countries. Seeing the success of the garment workshop, the cooperative bought 20 weaving looms and provided loans to members for another 80 looms, set up a rattan workshop employing 120 workers and also a shoe/heel production unit employing 70 workers. In 1996, the cooperative made a profit of about 200 million VND and its fixed asset value has increased to 8.6 billion VND. As a result of his efforts, Mr. Luu Ban, the former head of the cooperative and the man who had dreamed of harnessing the waters for electricity, was awarded the title of “Labor Hero” by the government.

Over the next year, Hung, my operations officer, and I traveled the width and breadth of the country visiting different provinces and talking to commune leadership about what they wanted. One of these visits was to Dien Bien Phu, location of the famous battle that my father had talked about almost forty years ago. During my Berkeley days, the French defeat at the hands of the Vietnamese in this valley was a constant subject of debate as the possibility of the Americans meeting the same fate was discussed. We rode in a Land Rover and spent a few days in Dien Bien Phu reliving the war and visiting the various hillocks that the French general had named after his mistresses, and which had been gradually run over by the Vietnamese forces. We saw the guns that the Vietnamese had laboriously pushed by hand to the top of the surrounding mountains undetected by the French and which had contributed to their final defeat. When we returned to Hanoi, I was at a party hosted by the Indian ambassador, Aftab Seth. When he heard of my visit to Dien Bien Phu, he took me by the hand and said, “I want you to meet the hero of that battle – General Giap.” General Giap was a slight man then in his eighties and very interested in what I had seen. “Next time,” he told me, “you must visit my jungle headquarters from where we directed the battle.” Which I did on a later date and it was to be one of the highlights of my peregrinations in rural Vietnam.

In our visits to the rural areas, a few staff from the national power utility, EVN, often accompanied us. In the early days, most of EVN staff treated these visits with disdain. Rural electrification was a loss maker in the national utility and the more ambitious staff were all busy building new power plants. But then in 1999, things changed. There was a minor rebellion in a commune in northern Vietnam where the villagers had rounded on the communist party officials for their corruption and rent seeking. Word of this slowly leaked to the outside world. The Party officials in Hanoi were grim faced to find that the rebellion had occurred in exactly the same villages where their own revolution had started some decades back. The grievances were the same: rural areas were neglected, promises made were not kept after the elections and ruthless and corrupt officials from the provinces looted the poor. The Party was sufficiently shook up by this development to order a swift reordering of priorities: the rural areas were to be given priority and their demand for electricity, water and medical facilities were to be met on a time bound plan.

The senior management of both EVN and the Ministry of Industry were delighted to inform the Party of their negotiations with the World Bank for a $150 million rural energy project, which would provide electricity to over 700 communes in the country. All of a sudden, our field visits started resembling wedding caravans as more and more senior utility staff joined in our discussions with the rural people. Many of these Hanoi or Danang based staff had never visited any of the rural areas, certainly never having examined in any depth their problems or what could be done about them. For many of them, all of this was a revelation, and they learnt more about their own country with some surprise. There was, however, a young man, Lien, that we met in our travels in central Vietnam. Tall, lanky, bespectacled and intense, he was extremely distrustful of the Bank and was candid in his opinion that the Bank would never finance rural electrification. He had been working on problems of rural electrification for several years and was getting progressively discouraged at the lack of progress his country was making. He was skeptical of what we were trying to achieve, but he was extremely knowledgeable. Soon, I made him our internal Rosetta Stone – testing out our theories with him for their practicality.

By 1998, all these visits and discussions had gradually led us to develop our own model of rural electrification in the Vietnamese context. We all agreed that there would be no give away and that the rural households had to contribute not only to the capital cost of the development, but also in its operation and management. Having formulated the fundamental guidelines for the development of rural electrification in Vietnam, the Bank invited all the communes to participate in the project. To do so, however, they had to agree formally to certain fundamental principles. The choice was theirs, there was to be no compulsion, but every commune and provincial leadership had to provide a letter stating their willingness to abide by these conditions. These were: (a) all investments in the rural electrification project were to be economically viable; (b) there would be cost sharing between all the parties including the consumers, local governments, the national government and the World Bank; (c) the construction would be based on the most cost effective technology; (d) consumers would commit to connect to the network and agree to pay operating charges; (e) there would be no operating subsidies; (f) the local distribution utility would have a legal status with financial controls and (g) the community would accept the responsibility of managing the operations after the completion of construction. In effect, each rural household would have to pay about $20 for the capital costs and about $2 a month for the electricity they utilized. In most communes, more than two thirds of the households agreed to pay the connection charges. The provincial government would provide the land free while the national government would borrow from the Bank at low interest rates. All construction had to follow national specifications and after the completion of the construction, its operation and management would be transferred to the commune electricity cooperative.

We circulated these fundamental principles to the over 2000 communes that had expressed an interest in joining the Bank project and to make them aware of the low interest credit that we would provide. Over 1000 communes replied and the Ministry of Industry selected 670 communes to participate in the first part of the project. On this basis, the Bank agreed to provide to the ministry a loan of $150 million. Vietnam signed the loan in mid-2000 and construction work began soon thereafter to provide electricity to about 2 million people.

Vietnam’s first rural energy project progressed with great speed and by the end of 2004, it had connected over 900 communes to the national grid, thus providing electricity to over half a million new households. Not only were these rural households provided electricity in a short period of time, EVN and the Power companies also followed a strategy that provided for local people to participate in the construction and operation of the new systems. The construction contracts were designed to maximize local contracting industry participation even though it meant awarding and supervising over 600 contracts. These small construction contracts created major employment potential and became the foundation of an efficient local construction industry in the districts. After the completion of construction, it was agreed that the communes would help to manage the operation and maintenance of the local distribution grids. The power companies trained a large number of people from the communes, who then became service agents responsible for routine operations and maintenance, as well as commercial activities such as billing and collection. In most communes, two or three persons had by now been trained to perform this function. Thus, the project not only provided electricity to the communes, it also laid the foundation for local employment and management. It also had some other side effects. Mr. Hai, the Minister of Industry, told me that his election as minister was certainly helped by the fact that a large number of communes in his area had received electricity and that he had come to be known in the area as one who could really get things done.

One of the unanswered questions of rural electrification is to what extent it really helps economic development. We needed to measure this with some accuracy and so commissioned a five-year research project with the Institute of Sociology in Hanoi. But even before that, I undertook a travel program to see what I could find empirically on my visits. All I can say is that in my travels, the evidence of the impact of rural electrification on the local economy was tremendous.

One of the first communes to be electrified was the “hero” commune of Ngu Thuy in Le Thuy district of Quang Binh province in central Vietnam. There, I met with the women of the artillery corps who had fought in the American War and had sunk several US ships. Tran Thi Hoanh had been the leader of the group then. She was now a fisherwoman. She gravely told me of the benefits that electricity would bring to her commune and how she looked forward to buying a small icebox to preserve her catch of fish before taking it to the market some fifteen kilometers away. When I visited the same commune two years later, the chairman of the commune, Nguyen Phuong Lam, told me that all of the 521 households in the commune now had electricity. The consumption of electricity had grown from a mere 100,000 kwhrs in 2002 to over 14,000 kwhrs/month in 2004. Two ice making enterprises had been set up and there was one company exploring for titanium in the area. The average household income had increased from 88,000 VND in 2002 to well over 130,000 VND today. He proudly went on to say that almost 95% of the households had TVs, while 70% also had rice cookers. Almost 80% of the households now had pumped water for drinking and for their gardens. This fishing village -- almost 70% of the households were involved in fishing while the rest were farmers- had grown prosperous with the coming of electric power and the building of a rural road that connected them to the nearest district town. Even the TV had played a major part in that it provided them with information regarding technical matters for both the farmers and the fishermen.

I was curious to see what had happened to Tran Thi Hoanh who I recalled had seemed such a shy and unlikely leader of a women’s battalion. We went in search of her in the neighboring village of Ngu Thuy. Her husband greeted us and showed us the photograph we had taken on that day two years ago. I recognized her in the photograph, but wondered if she would remember the foreigner who had showed up one day two years ago at her village to switch on the power in her commune. Hoanh was busy organizing the women in the village, but consented to leave the meeting to come and meet with us. She walked in and greeted us exclaiming that indeed she remembered me from me from that past visit. Over tea I asked her if her life had changed since electricity came to her village and whether she had bought the ice box she told me she planned to buy. She smiled and said that life in the village was now much better and that she was busy organizing the women in her commune. But, no, she had not bought the ice box....

Another commune I visited was in Binh Son district in Quang Ngai province where electricity came only in 2002. The Vice Chairman of the Peoples Committee indicated that the per capita income of the people in the commune had doubled in the last two years increasing from 200,000 VND/month (approximately US $13) to over 400,000 VND. I visited some of the over 30 households in the commune that had started new enterprises with the coming of good quality power. These included woodworking workshops, motorcycle repairs shops, sewing machines, pumping etc. It was clear that electrification had improved life in the commune.

I was pleased that we were having an impact in rural Vietnam. The word of the success of this project spread far and wide. We had managed to provide electricity to one new commune every day for the past three years!

The success of this project led to intense pressure from the government to expand the program to solve the remaining problems of rural electrification in the country. In December of 2003, we started work on the second rural energy project. But the second rural energy project had to tackle a much more difficult problem, that of the rehabilitation of the existing poor electricity grids in the rural areas. There were not only technical issues involved in the repair and rehabilitation of old systems; there were also issues of diversified ownership and forms of management.

In the past decade, about 6,918 rural communes out of the 8,891 communes in the country were connected under the previous programs of the Government. In this approach, EVN had provided a connection to the center of the commune, but the local community, households and provincial governments had to take the responsibility of mobilizing funds, purchasing and installation of the low-voltage grid, and for its management. While this program had been successful in connecting over 6,000 communes, it also was the genesis of the problems we faced. These low voltage grids in general were poorly designed and constructed, leading to heavy losses varying from 20 to 50 percent in some cases. Since the local grid purchased power at a government fixed price at the center of the commune, the cost of these losses had to be recovered from the consumers in the commune, leading to high power prices ranging from VND1,000 to VND2,000/kWh (almost two to three times the nationally prescribed residential tariffs).

The local Commune Electricity groups that were formed to manage the grids had neither legal status nor any financial accountability or controls. In most communes, these groups were unable to find the investments needed for network expansion since they could not raise any bank funds and local equity was limited. When these grids were in disrepair, there were often no funds for rehabilitation, and in some cases, even for routine operation and maintenance. Also, since the households in the community were required to contribute to the construction of the local low-voltage grids, only the richer households had access to electricity. In many of these communes, thus, less than 50 percent of the households had access and those that did paid much higher tariffs than their urban counterparts.

The second rural energy project was designed to help the government solve these problems. It would help the local people to take over the management of the local grids through the creation of rural electricity cooperatives or district level joint stock companies. The joint stock companies would be run as businesses and provide additional employment in the rural areas. While this was a pilot project, if it was successful, it would revolutionize the distribution network in the entire country, providing low cost, good quality power to the rural areas for the creation of new enterprises and thus provide employment opportunities. As the ambitious nature of the project became apparent, there was great resistance from the conventional thinkers in the Bank’s Washington headquarters. Questions were raised and demands made to slow down the processing of the project until further studies could be done. Thus, we had the paradoxical situation of the government wanting to proceed with full speed, while our professional colleagues were reluctant to sign off on the project. This tussle became bitter and I was asked to stay on in Vietnam by the country director to smooth the waters and to ensure that the Bank board approved the project. The Bank board finally approved the $200 million project in November 2004.

Vietnam became one of the leading countries in the world to have provided electricity to over 90% of its total population. It had gone from only 50% coverage of households in 1996 to 90% in 2004. As I saw the success of Vietnam’s rural electrification program, I wondered if it were possible to repeat the success of Vietnam in rural electrification in my own country.

The Bank had provided over one billion dollars since the opening up of Vietnam in 1994. This had made possible a complete reorganization and upgrading of its electricity sector, helped them develop their first offshore gas field and also mobilize the private sector for the financing of new power plants. The changes I had seen since my first arrival in Vietnam almost fourteen years ago were phenomenal. The per capita income of the country had increased three times and was now almost the same as that of India. Hanoi was no longer a quiet quaint village, but a bustling metropolis with over six world class hotels, a gleaming efficient airport, streets lined with shops stocking the latest in electronic and fashion goods, a world class opera house, an art theatre and numerous art galleries selling the captivating works of Vietnamese artists. And we had been a significant part of this development. It is rare to be present at a country’s rebirth and I had been fortunate to be a witness to Vietnam’s transformation from a poor third world economy to a rapidly growing tiger in the east, to soon rival both Thailand and the Philippines. From a country that was reluctant to publish its national budget, it has moved to join the international community by aggressively lobbying to become a part of the World Trade Organization.

In December 2004, I was presented with a medal by the government of Vietnam and EVN for my contribution to the development of the energy sector in Vietnam at a simple but touching ceremony. But even more than this official recognition was a simple gift from one of the power distribution companies. At my farewell reception, Lien presented me with a painting on behalf of his company. It was a beautiful rural landscape and I had merely glanced at it. Then I saw the inscription at the bottom of the painting. It said, “To Dr Anil Malhotra. For helping change the rural landscape of Vietnam.”



On Sat, Feb 15, 2014 at 2:11 PM, Anil Malhotra <anilmal@gmail.com> wrote:
Sorry I will not be able to make it on Monday since I have an operation that morning.

Anil

On Sat, Feb 15, 2014 at 1:12 PM, <drysankova@worldbank.org> wrote:
Dear colleagues, 
 
Thank you very much for agreeing to be participants in the TTL trade secrets session - in our case on "Trial and adjustment until you achieve success: evolution of grid-connected (Vietnam) and off-grid (Bangladesh) programs.  The session is scheduled for Wednesday, February 26th at 10.00-11.30
 
Vietnam and Bangladesh have been chosen for being so far the most successful programs for grid and off-grid electrification respectively and all of you have been invited so that we have an opportunity to hear from subsequent TTLs how the program evolved over time, what challenges you faced and how they were overcome.  It is easy now to see why and how these two programs were successful, but of course future success was not assured when the programs were conceived, often initial ideas proved wrong and adjustments were made, and eventually both programs evolved into great success stories - although I am sure new challenges have risen since.
 
We would like to hear from you - subsequent TTLs - what you saw as main challenges and how they have been overcome, and how initial project design might evolve over time, and how the programs keep evolving. 
 
There is a "standard" format for TTL-trade secret sessions - see below.  We would appreciate if you can review and think of the questions below.  Please note that you will be invited to training for this session -which you are very welcome and encouraged to attend if you can; however, if your workload does not allow you to go to the training, you can decline.
 
I was also wondering if we all could meet Monday February 24 to discuss how to structure this session in more detail.  Would Monday 24th 9 am work for everyone? (Zubair, we would call you)  Many thanks.
 
 
 
SESSION FLOW.

1) STRUCTURE 
    PART 1 (10-15 min) CONNECT 
    This session will start with some networking for 10-15 min so that people have the opportunity to also connect with and get to know each other. The facilitator will lead this session. 

    Part II (8-10 min) TELL THE STORY
    The TTL will give a 10-15 min overview of the "situation" (country, client, conditions) using the storytelling technique. TTLs will be encouraged to bring “artifacts” of their projects, e.g., music, food, a rug or ceramic from that region, etc. If the speakers wish to have any visuals and would like to show photos they can do it here.   Hung and Raihan - could you prepare this overview (5 min each), please bring pictures if you can. 
    Part III (40-50 min) “BOARD OF TRADE SECRETS” 
    Participants will pick 12 out of 16 "Trade Secrets" they want the TTL talk about. Each “Trade Secret” is expected to take 2-3 minutes for the TTL to share and describe. Fourteen “Trade Secrets” will be standardized by the team and two will remain a “wild card” that the TTL can submit. This way we aim to achieve a standard approach across the 60 sessions.  TWhen you think of these questions, pls also think how it relates to the key challenges the project faced when you were the TTL and how they were overcome.  When clicked, each cell on the Board will transform into a picture to create a “stickiness effect”. The team will provide those images, but the TTL can replace it with any of his/her photographs.

    Part IV (20-32 min) “BACK TO THE AUDIENCE” 
    Facilitated discussion of 2-3 topics that the participants want to go deeper into.


--
Anil K Malhotra
4720 Chevy Chase Drive, # 500
Chevy Chase, Md 20815
301 215 5949
http://anil09.blogspot.com


--
Anil K Malhotra
4720 Chevy Chase Drive, # 500
Chevy Chase, Md 20815
301 215 5949
http://anil09.blogspot.com



Sent from my iPad

Monday, February 10, 2014

Uninended consequences


Many of my readers were deeply concerned at the bleak tone of my last few blogs. So much so that I had to write to assure them that I was not yet on my last legs but still fighting perhaps alone but still there in the arena. I was trying to live up to the advice I had earlier given my friends in similar staits-- fight fight. ...


and part of that battle was to accurately reflect my physical and mental condition as it slowly deteriorated and left my doctors a trifle puzzled. Yet I had only set out to record, for myself, the changing environment and the various efforts that my doctors made to overcome my travails. But also to record the joyous mornings when my two year grandson, Nikhil, would rush to my bed, followed by his father. His face still sleepy, his hair tousled but his eyes were alredy sparkling with mischief 

" hello dada" would come from this ray of sunshine.

My condition often reminded me of the famed humorist Art Buchald. Art had  dealt with his renal failure and subsequent dialysis by moving to a hospice. He was thrown out of the hospice after six months because miraculously his kidney function came back. (He wrote  of his experience in his last book "Too soon to say goodbye"). And I am convinced he got a longer lease of life  because in the hospice he had a rollicking good time- eating all the hitherto forbidden foods, drinking to excess and  most of all being surrounded by loving friends. That is what I would wish for too.

As messages after these blogs were posted poured in from friends and family, I took solace in Art's story.

"Thanks for sharing the good news! I must say that your previous health reports had created despondency among your readers, but this is good news indeed. However, as a member (albeit relatively new) of the ‘not so healthy heart’ club, I feel I have to caution a fellow member of possible carelessness. The caution stems from the last part of your good news sentence: “...and that I could resume normal life!”

"I  love your blogs and in the selfish interest of reading a lot more items, I feel compelled to advice that you need to redefine your ‘normal’ life. The old normal brought you to where you "are: you need a new normal to bring you to a different and better place, health wise. But rather than pontificate on what that new normal ought to be, I’d rather let you draw your own path to one. "

And another "It is so nice to know that you are off from dialysis. Good health is the greatest gift  from above. My best wishes for continued normal life. Do practice YOGA. It has remarkable potential for tissue rejuvenation and reorganization."


I had not realized how much love and affection there was in the world..These words indeed reminded me that one should never take ones friends for granted or not keep in touch with them.

But a nagging question remains in my mind: At what point is the pain worth the living? And what right do you have to continue to inflict your suffering on those around you who love you?

Should you not be asking, like Hamlet, "  to be or not to be". And

"Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them. .....Who would fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?"

Early January has brought a respite though no one knows for how long and how complete. Still it is a welcome break even as I yearn for more and longer peaceful days in the future. But the future is not ours to see and as the song goes

"Que Sera, Sera,
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours, to see
Que Sera, Sera
What will be, will be."


Sent from my iPad

Sunday, February 9, 2014

The marshmallow test and success

All parents wonder if their child will be successful in life.  

In the late 1960s and early 1970s led by psychologist Walter Mischel, then a professor at Stanford University carried out a number of tests to determine exactly what led to success in later life. In these studies, a child was offered a choice between one small reward (sometimes a marshmallow, hence the name of the test) provided immediately or two small rewards if he or she waited until the experimenter returned (after an absence of approximately 15 minutes). In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores,  educational attainment,  body mass index (BMI) and other life measures. 

Now comes a book that offers a more holistic view of success factors. It states that what determines success is a triple package of qualities- superiority, a sense of insecurity and impulse control.


Chua and Rubenfeld’s explosive new meditation on success, The Triple Package asks the charged question of why certain ethnic groups do better than others, why certain populations instil in their children an ability to succeed to a greater extent than others. They present evidence that certain immigrant groups in America – Jews, Asians, South Asians, Iranians, Cubans, Nigerians – seem to thrive, largely in economic terms, in test scores, college admissions, net worth and income, while others seem to have a harder time. They also look at the disproportionately large number of Asians in top music schools, of Cubans in Florida politics, of Indians in finance, and of Jews among successful comedians. Why, they ask, do some groups produce more bankers, lawyers, doctors, famous fashion designers, bestselling authors, than others?

They go on to argue that these “successful” groups cultivate in their children a “triple package” of qualities. The first is superiority: children are encouraged to feel superior, chosen, special, turning outsider status into a badge of honour. But they believe that this sense of superiority, of being better than banal mainstream culture, has to be combined with a rousing sense of insecurity, a haunting feeling that nothing you do is ever good enough; it is the combination of these two qualities that leads to achievement, to the kind of obsessive drive that they admire. The last part of “the triple package” is “impulse control”. In a dominant culture that places a premium on immediate gratification, on hanging out, on fulfilment over hard work, on expression over effort, the ability to defer, to control, to be disciplined is also part of the “package”.

Chua and Rubenfeld are very critical of the self-esteem movement, which is to say the warm bath theory of parenting that espouses children feeling good about themselves no matter what. “You can’t raise your child saying, ‘You’re perfect, you’re amazing, everything you do is amazing,’ and give that person the drive to get somewhere,” Chua says. “Self-esteem has to be earned to be really internalised, in order for a child to have that unbreakable sense of superiority.” Her point is that if you praise your children for mediocre grades, for not scoring goals, for painting a blah painting, they know in their hearts that they have not succeeded, and you do not foster a real or enduring sense of achievement. According to this very intriguing logic, many of our efforts to protect or support our children are, in fact, crippling them.

What’s the alternative though? Chua calls it “grit parenting” and it involves instilling an ethic of work, of overcoming obstacles, of discipline. She points out that in many walks of life, not just business or law, even artistic ones, you need to be resilient, you need to work through rejections and setbacks. You can’t always call your mother to fix things.

Notably missing from their rigorous and intimidating definition of success is the minor question of  happiness. It’s true, though, that when people say they just want their children to be happy, they usually mean happy in a certain way, or according to certain ideas of a successful life. Most people, if they are honest, mean happy with an asterisk. “There are a host of good, decent people who are not ambitious, who are not climbing, who may have the best lives of all,” says Rubenfeld, “We are just not writing about those people.”

Also the talk of “success” will also irritate and provoke. However complex or subtle the analysis, certain readers will feel they are being ruthlessly labelled failures. They will feel an implicit brutality, a dismissal of the variety of successes, and the faltering of dreams, in the judgments of who is “successful”. By defining and pinning down success, you are also defining and pinning down “failure”, which will make people uncomfortable. 

One thing that Rubenfeld and Chua do not seem to condone is “living in the moment”, which they call a “hollow” way to be. The idea of planning, seeing the outlines of the future, following a bigger picture, takes on for them an almost moral urgency. The joy of idling, of luxurious, wasted summer days, mornings whiled away in bed, seems not to be part of their vision of “triple package” success.

And yet, in a world in which people are immensely anxious about their children’s futures, these thorny questions of success do occupy our imaginations. We run our kids ragged with lessons, enriching them within an inch of their life, for fear they will slip through the middle-class standard of living in a harsh, new future that we envision but can’t quite understand. This is a cultural moment in which an unprecedented amount of energy is being poured into creating “successful” children and yet we seem often to be floundering and misguided in how precisely to do that. 

In the end it is often the rogue surprise, the moment when the child breaks out and reaches for independence, when the “package”, whatever it is, falls away, that the fun, by which I mean the true or deepest happiness emerges.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Rocking the boat

"How long will I need to be on dialysis?"

It had been three months since I was put on dialysis. My toxic levels in the blood had risen to alarming levels. The doctors at the Washington Hospital Center had taken one look at them and rushed me into dialysis (dialysis is the mechanical removal of waste from the blood stream that would usually be processed by the kidneys if they were properly functioning ) A few of the doctors were pessimistic that this renal failure could be reversed. Two of then had even mentioned hospice as the next possible stage.

But the initial dialysis had worked and the numbers- bun (or blood urea nitrogen), creatine measures   measure how well your kidneys are working, and GFR is a measure of renal function had all retreated to relatively safer zones though not yet out of danger.

It had now been three months and the three times a week, three hours a session were getting to me. After each session I was so fatigued that I could do little but lie around the house.

My expert nephrologist, Dr B, looked at me reflectively and, after a pause, said: 

"You are recovering nicely from the serious toxic levels you have been through. In my view we should continue these sessions, and maybe even increase them to four hours a session which is the norm for dialysis patients."

"So how and when do I finally return to a more normal life? Can we not gradually reduce the frequency or the duration of the sessions?"

"So you think I should be on dialysis indefinitely?", I asked despondently.

"No" he replied," all I am saying is that but we have reached and are now on a safer plateau. All seems to be going well. And I am a "don't rock the boat" kind of guy."

Interestingly my GP. Dr S, had made the very same comment a week earlier.

But I still persisted, eager to exhaust all possible options.

"No" replied Dr B, "I have found that reducing the frequency does no good to your system but rather puts an extra strain on your heart." And he went on to explain the reasons for it. "We can play around a little bit with the duration of each session but not by much."

"So there is no way of getting off dialysis according to this analysis."

"Yes, there is," he replied. " We can go "cold turkey". We could just stop the dialysis completely and see if your body can tolerate the shock and live with it. But of course there is a danger that the older toxic levels will return."

"But if they do start going up, could we not restart dialysis?", I ask.

"Yes, we could. But the risk* remains." 

"Well," I told him , " I was not a "don't rock the boat" kind of guy." I glanced at my wife, who had borne the burden of the constant ferrying to and fro to the dialysis center every three days. 

So we had a choice- go "cold turkey" or be on dialysis for the rest of my life.

"Its your decision" she said.

 "All right then, let us stop the dialysis and see what happens."

Dr B agreed and so we stopped the dialysis three weeks ago. But we took the precaution of doing a blood test every week and he would review each result carefully before deciding to continue the experiment for another week.

So here I am back to near normal life. So far the gamble has paid off. No one knows for how long. But so far so good.

It is too early to state whether my insistence on this course was foolhardy or a risk worth taking.

But I figured it was my life and my decision.


"Play with life, laugh with life,
dance lightly with life,
and smile at the riddles of life..You don't have the power to make life "fair,"
but you do have the power to make life joyful." (Jonathan Lockwood Huie)

"The wise man looks back into the past,
and does not grieve over what is far off,
nor rejoice over what is near;
for he knows that time is without end" ( Lao Tzu)

Happiness is a accepting what is.

----------------------------------------

*Since your kidneys cannot filter out the potassium, it will cause your heart to beat irregularly. If you have lost the ability to produce urine, your vascular system will become flooded with fluid and your heart won't be able to keep up with the increased volume. The increased volume will also collect in your lungs making it difficult to breath, depriving your heart and brain of oxygen. Your kidneys cannot filter out the urea your body produces, which will result in toxemia, rapidly damaging your heart, brain, and other vital organs. But dialysis prevents all the above life threatening effects by removing the harmfull toxins in your body.